The experiment in question is as follows:

• A normal baby human is isolated from all other humans immediately after birth. Their birth should take place in a manner that prevents them from ever seeing another human's face or hearing their voice. They also should not have been exposed to any audible spoken language or music while in the womb.

• They're given the necessary food and water, a comfortable place to sleep, and a sanitary environment in which to live.

• They're given toys and other items which which to entertain themselves, but nothing that hints at human society. No pictures, dolls, or other likenesses of humans, no spoken or written language, no music, etc. They should have no evidence that other people exist.

• Any physical manipulation necessary, such as cleaning up waste or spoon feeding them, must be performed by very inhuman robots.

• The person is not restrained or otherwise kept from injuring themselves.

If they survive to 20, this market resolves YES. If they don't, this market resolves NO.

If I find out that such an experiment has already been performed, this market resolves to the result of that experiment. If multiple such experiments have been performed, this market will resolve to the percentage of them where the child made it to 20. Otherwise the market remains open until such an experiment is performed.

If it seems that the existance of this market is providing a significant incentive for the experiment to be performed, I reserve the right to resolve it however I please, probably in a manner so as to maximally punish the people involved.

If we get strong evidence of the answer without actually performing the experiment, such as from similar experiments or a superintelligence simulating human behavior, I might resolve the market based on that evidence instead.