The experiment in question is as follows:
A normal baby human is isolated from all other humans immediately after birth. Their birth should take place in a manner that prevents them from ever seeing another human's face or hearing their voice. They also should not have been exposed to any audible spoken language or music while in the womb.
They're given the necessary food and water, a comfortable place to sleep, and a sanitary environment in which to live.
They're given toys and other items which which to entertain themselves, but nothing that hints at human society. No pictures, dolls, or other likenesses of humans, no spoken or written language, no music, etc. They should have no evidence that other people exist.
Any physical manipulation necessary, such as cleaning up waste or spoon feeding them, must be performed by very inhuman robots.
The person is not restrained or otherwise kept from injuring themselves.
If they survive to 20, this market resolves YES. If they don't, this market resolves NO.
If I find out that such an experiment has already been performed, this market resolves to the result of that experiment. If multiple such experiments have been performed, this market will resolve to the percentage of them where the child made it to 20. Otherwise the market remains open until such an experiment is performed.
If it seems that the existance of this market is providing a significant incentive for the experiment to be performed, I reserve the right to resolve it however I please, probably in a manner so as to maximally punish the people involved.
If we get strong evidence of the answer without actually performing the experiment, such as from similar experiments or a superintelligence simulating human behavior, I might resolve the market based on that evidence instead.
Related questions
Have you heard of the alleged experiment by Frederick?
Not the same as your description, but a subset of it that is suggestive of what the answer might be
@JimHays Oh oops. Have people been betting based on the title or the description? I'll change whichever one people weren't going off of.
@JimHays Hmm. I was originally thinking that I'd only give those out after the market had questionably met the criteria, but in this case I think it's sufficiently obvious that such an issue would have occurred that I can safely pay it out early.
Manalink for Jim only: https://manifold.markets/link/oZ7XV0tw
I'm pretty sure there are a lot of examples of this happening. But humans are animals and there's no reason they would have a different result than what already happens with animals, and they would eventually resist their environment and need to be restrained for your experiment to work in the real world.