Full question:
Working in food technology is a more effective career choice than working in grassroots activism if one’s goal is to end factory farming as quickly as possible and one has average skills in each area.
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Resolves once factory farming is ended and we have a decent idea of what caused that to happen.
Related questions
I think this is quite unmeasurable. Even if factory farming has ended, I am pretty sure that opinions differ what actually caused that, which most likely is a combination of both, but in which proportion? I don't want to place a bet on an a mere opinion of Jacy Anthis or whoever.
85-90% yes. The vast majority of people are omnivores. Most non-vegans are actively turned off by most of what passes as animal rights activism nowadays. Accepting the EA moral framework for the purposes of this market, activism probably has small net negative utility and research has large net positive utility, if your utility function is reduction of farm animal suffering.
