One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Clarification:

Conditional on no AGI or population collapse.

I have relatively high confidence on the arrival of virtual and augmented reality because I think there are relatively easy predictions to make about personal technology, such as the devices we have in our pockets and homes. I think it was relatively easy to predict in the 1970s, and perhaps earlier, that smartphones would be developed and popularized, in the sense of small devices that have many uses that were previously restricted to other devices (e.g., calculators, cameras, gaming, email). Of course, claims about what could have been predicted should be taken with many grains of salt.