Will this market stay at or above 90% for at least 1 hour?
151
350
2K
resolved Mar 27
Resolved
NO

Any contiguous 1 hour period before close where this market does not drop below 90% causes this to resolve YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

Goes by the probability displayed on the graph, so 89.5% rounds up to 90%.

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predicted NO
sold Ṁ604 of NO

Well, it can resolve now

sold Ṁ4 of YES

@AllanLacy Technically Isaac didn't say it would resolve at market close. If the whale comes in 1 minute before end, and Isaac doesn't resolve until 2 hours later, then it would resolve yes

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Mqrius That would be a really good thing to get clarification on.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@Mqrius is Isaac that evil?

predicted NO

Only counts time spent open.

@AllanLacy Not in my experience, that's why I sold my Yes :D

predicted NO

@IsaacKing Well, fingers crossed that we have some really dumb whales, then.

sold Ṁ0 of YES

@Duncn I bet they didn't become whales by being dumb

Except that one guy who always votes random things to 90% and gets all his mana from buying it

sold Ṁ39 of YES

@AllanLacy You should all sell your NO positions before it closes. Just saying.

Instructions unclear, sold my Yes position

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO
predicted YES

@Duncn Why not

predicted NO

@NicoDelon That's not how 'should' statements work.

predicted YES

@Duncn I think you missed the joke

predicted NO

@NicoDelon Yes; hence the question. I have a good prediction of the joke now, though, if you don't want to explain.

predicted YES
Whale watching
bought Ṁ86 of NO

There is something fishy going on under the hood.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

90% is too high do it is very hard to hold. Seems very unlikely

predicted YES

@ValeryCherepanov yes yes, very unlikely

bought Ṁ3,000 of NO

I'm not sure why some people are still buying YES within 1 hour of close. The description says "Goes by the probability displayed on the graph", and the graph stops updating at close. Doesn't that imply that if it gets bet up to 90% at the last second, and Isaac waits (e.g.) 2 hours before resolving, it would still have to resolve NO?

predicted NO

@JimHays The market doesn't close for another 24.5 hours.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing Ah, I got the date wrong. Thanks!