Will the US have an atheist president by 2033? | Manifold

Will the US have an atheist president by 2033?

Plus

25

Ṁ678

2033

17%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

They can be president for any length of time.

This market closes right after inaguration day 2033.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

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Even if someone was privately an atheist, i find it unlikely that they'd be open about it if running for the office. Everyone seems to end their speeches with "god bless america"

predicts NO

@firstuserhere For the purposes of this market, I need to be confident that they're actually an atheist. They don't need to be super public about it, but it can't just be a "IDK, I respect all religious beliefs" hedge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atheism_in_the_United_States#Public_officials

predicts NO

Oof, 53% of people in 2014 would be less likely to vote for an atheist president, and only 5% more likely.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/05/19/for-2016-hopefuls-washington-experience-could-do-more-harm-than-good/

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