Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2075? | Manifold

Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2075?

Technology•Math•Quantum Computing•Cryptography•Computational Complexity Theory•Prime Numbers

132

48

Ṁ6.7K

Ṁ1.9K

2075

52%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers

Market resolves based on whether anyone can provide the prime factors of this number before close:

25195908475657893494027183240048398571429282126204032027777137836043662020707595556264018525880784406918290641249515082189298559149176184502808489120072844992687392807287776735971418347270261896375014971824691165077613379859095700097330459748808428401797429100642458691817195118746121515172654632282216869987549182422433637259085141865462043576798423387184774447920739934236584823824281198163815010674810451660377306056201619676256133844143603833904414952634432190114657544454178424020924616515723350778707749817125772467962926386356373289912154831438167899885040445364023527381951378636564391212010397122822120720357

See also:

/IsaacKing/will-the-prime-factors-of-rsa2048-b

/IsaacKing/will-the-prime-factors-of-rsa2048-b-ee7b47b7c8ab

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ350 of YES

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-prime-factors-of-rsa2048-b-ee7b47b7c8ab#LM7EFdczpjY4YnEp12xl

Do you disagree with my reasoning here?

predicts YES

@NoaNabeshima Who are you asking?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing everyone, but especially those betting No

Do you realize how absurdly impossible this is, are you doing any math to back this up.

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Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2040?

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Will any prime factor of the 1801st Fibonacci Number be found by 2025?

Will the tenth Dedekind number be known by 2040?

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Technology questions

Are the cheesy AI-generated images used on many Manifold markets deeply cringe?

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Math questions

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

How many views will 3Blue1Brown's "But what is a GPT? Visual intro to Transformers" video have after 1 month?

Quantum Computing questions

When will Quantum computing become viable?

Which of Baba Vanga’s (Bulgarian mystic) 2024 predictions will come true?

Cryptography questions

Will there be any payouts on the NIST Elliptic Curve Seeds Bounty by May 5 2024?

🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?

Computational Complexity Theory questions

Will a plausible proof obfuscator be found by end of 2024?

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Will any prime factor of the 1801st Fibonacci Number be found by 2025?

Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(6) be known before 2075?

Will the tenth Dedekind number be known by 2040?

Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?

Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?

Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2040?

Will the prime factors of RSA-1024 be known by 2030?

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Will RSA-260 be factored by July 1st 2024?