Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2075?
132
1.9kṀ6779
2075
53%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers

Market resolves based on whether anyone can provide the prime factors of this number before close:

25195908475657893494027183240048398571429282126204032027777137836043662020707595556264018525880784406918290641249515082189298559149176184502808489120072844992687392807287776735971418347270261896375014971824691165077613379859095700097330459748808428401797429100642458691817195118746121515172654632282216869987549182422433637259085141865462043576798423387184774447920739934236584823824281198163815010674810451660377306056201619676256133844143603833904414952634432190114657544454178424020924616515723350778707749817125772467962926386356373289912154831438167899885040445364023527381951378636564391212010397122822120720357

See also:

/IsaacKing/will-the-prime-factors-of-rsa2048-b

/IsaacKing/will-the-prime-factors-of-rsa2048-b-ee7b47b7c8ab

Technology
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Computational Complexity Theory
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https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-prime-factors-of-rsa2048-b-ee7b47b7c8ab#LM7EFdczpjY4YnEp12xl

Do you disagree with my reasoning here?

predictedYES

@NoaNabeshima Who are you asking?

predictedYES

@IsaacKing everyone, but especially those betting No

Do you realize how absurdly impossible this is, are you doing any math to back this up.

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