Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2025?
Basic
6
Ṁ1032026
67%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If the ratio of highest point / lowest point is at least 2, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@JonathanSimon That's a much less interesting question IMO. Crypto proponents claim it's the currency of the future. If it's going to be a useful currency, it needs to be stable. If it's undergoing massive fluctuations, it's not a useful currency; doesn't matter whether its most recent movement has been up or down.
Not to mention that predictions about its expected movement direction are already included in its current price as per the EMH, so there's not much point in having a prediction market on that question as well.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Bitcoin exceed 100,000 USD In 2024?
19% chance
Will bitcoin price be greater than $100,000 USD on Jan 1 2025
9% chance
Will bitcoin be over $100k on April 5, 2025?
36% chance
Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2028?
40% chance
Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2030?
42% chance
How will Bitcoin’s value ($) change within a week of the 2024 US presidential election?
Will the US dollar fall to 0.000004 BTC before 2030?
39% chance
Bitcoin $100K by July 31, 2025?
32% chance
Will Bitcoin ever surpass 75K USD in 2024?
99% chance
Will the Bitcoin go down by more than 20% over 2024?
11% chance