Will the 2024 Olympics go ahead as planned without major disruption?
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predicts YES

Would bet more if major disruption was more defined

@PatMyron Anything that gets a lot of news coverage, leads to a lot of spectators being upset, etc.

sold Ṁ20 of YES

I had interpreted major as affecting some of the sporting events themselves to the point they're postponed/cancelled/relocated/etc. I assume every major sporting event has issues that receive lots of coverage and upset lots of fans

@PatMyron Really? Have an example?

The most recent major sporting event imo was the super bowl a few weeks ago, which was decided by a controversial referee call that received lots of coverage and upset fans:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/sports/football/super-bowl-holding-call.html

@PatMyron Something like that wouldn't count, since controversial referee calls are an expected part of sports. Needs to be something surprising.

@AlQuinn Did any of the competitions have to be rescheduled due to it?

@IsaacKing I don't believe so, but it was a close call fixing for synchronized swimming:'

"Gustavo Nascimento, the director of venue management for Rio 2016, said the entire operation will take 10 hours - six to drain the dirty water out of the competition pool and four to bring in the clean water using pumps and hoses. He said it should be completed by 7 a.m. Sunday, four hours before the scheduled start of the first synchronized swimming event of the games."

But then it is also noted:

"The starting platform for the open water course broke into three pieces in bad weather, forcing the cancellation of practice Saturday at Fort Copacabana. A backup platform is set to be brought in for the women's 10-kilomter race Monday."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rio-olympic-officials-wave-white-flag-in-effort-to-clean-green-pool/

The green pool stuff was widely discussed at the time and mocked, but didn't end up causing any problems with the events, while the platform thing did not get much media attention even though it did impact practice. But I'm guessing you are drawing the line at delay/cancellation of an actual event?

@AlQuinn I draw the line at anything that's significantly more disruptive than the average across past Olympics games.

Sounds like the green pool issue likely didn't meet that bar.