What does it mean to be socially recognized?

@Tenda A large fraction of society is in favor of normalization and removing stigma around it.

@IsaacKing I probably live in a bubble but I've never seen anyone be in favor the normalization of it, what I see is people wanting the death penalty for them. I think it would probably be helpful to remove the stigma around it, at least to get people treated. From my experience seeing people talk about it, I don't think society will ever accept it.

@Tenda Yeah, it doesn't seem likely. But social change has been very rapid this century, so it's certainly a possibility.

@IsaacKing can we make the resolution a bit more concrete? Maybe something like a high-quality poll showering >50% societal support for destigmatizing pedophilia?

(For the record, I think there's absolutely no way this happens by the resolution date)

@jonsimon Sure. I think 50% is too high a threshold though; I don't know how much of the population supports things like polyamory and transgenderness, but I'd guess it's less than 50%. How about 10%?

@IsaacKing this Pew research poll shows 64% in favor or strongly in favor of protecting trans people from discrimination https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2022/06/28/americans-complex-views-on-gender-identity-and-transgender-issues/

So I think 10% is unfairly low if you want it to be a roughly analogously comparison.

Poll numbers on polyamory seem inconsistent.

• 19% of Americans say it's acceptable.

• 25% of Americans say it's acceptable.

• 20% of Americans are polyamorous.

• 17% of Americans would like to engage in a polyamorous relationship.

• 5% of Americans are poly.

• 16% of Americans find it acceptable.

I expect poll results on pedophilia would be similarly inconsistent; highly dependent on subpopulation and exact question wording. If polls on pedophilia in 2029 show similar results to these polls on polyamory nowadays, it should certainly qualify as being socially recognized enough for this market to resolve YES.

(Very few people are advocating for polyamorous people to be jailed or brutally murdered for sport, while I see people advocate for that to happen to pedophiles relatively frequently.)

@IsaacKing Wow, I'm shocked how big the discrepancy is between poly and trans acceptance. If anything I would have though it was the other way around.

In that case based on this maybe put the cutoff at 15%, since all but one of the polls are at that level?

@jonsimon although I would update the market title in that case since it's no longer being compared with other sexual orientations

@jonsimon Transgenderism became a hot culture war topic, which trends towards a near 50% acceptance rate as everyone must fall in line with their political tribe. (Though there's still disagreement on the details; looks like <30% of Americans are in favor of letting trans people compete in their gender's sports.) Polyamory has mostly avoided such a fate, so people are largely considering it on its own merits.

Hmm, I thought polyamory was usually described as a sexual orientation, but the internet disagrees. That makes me think I should create a second market instead, as people may have bet thinking I meant only homosexuality/bisexuality. (Though I can't find easy numbers for bisexuality acceptance, so it's possible that that's much lower than homosexuality.)