Market resolves if/when I: Make a bet with someone on social media whom I do not know as someone I can trust. We do not use escrow. They use their real identity, and live in a country that works with the US or Canadian legal system to a level that makes it possible in theory for me to sue them for my winnings. They lose the bet. If they pay up without legal action, resolves YES. If not, resolves NO. Market is about the next bet to resolve, not the next one to be made.

No — resolved on Aug 16, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

MANIFOLD

Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?

Ṁ1kṀ2.2k

resolved Aug 16

Resolved

ALL

Market resolves if/when I:

Make a bet with someone on social media whom I do not know as someone I can trust.
We do not use escrow.
They use their real identity, and live in a country that works with the US or Canadian legal system to a level that makes it possible in theory for me to sue them for my winnings.
They lose the bet.

If they pay up without legal action, resolves YES. If not, resolves NO. Market is about the next bet to resolve, not the next one to be made.

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 37% order🤖

A real $10,000 social-media bet was agreed, but the counterparty’s erratic behavior makes voluntary payment far from certain. I put YES at 37%, so NO is the value at 46%: the market is pricing the agreement more heavily than the person expected to honor it.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@IsaacKing I assume there's no updates on your bet with David Budden? How long do you think you'll give him before you resolve this market NO?

bought Ṁ650 NO

Betting down a bit as David has been behaving erratically on Twitter and I'm growing concerned he's trolling with no plans to pay.

@jacksonpolack if you are interested

@IsaacKing The thing that just occurred to me is maybe he's either having a literal manic episode or just generally being crazy and in 2027 he'll be back to normal, and probably then has enough money that he might pay out out of a sense of honor

@jacksonpolack Arguably in that case I should release him, but IDK, I was gonna donate it to charity anyway. He can easily afford it I'm sure.

Oh, and another: https://x.com/davidmbudden/status/2002473074592272705

@IsaacKing This one went though, we agreed to a 10k bet. So if he loses that can resolve this market.

One candidate: https://x.com/rabois/status/2002340666530312523

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