Will Gary Marcus state that AGI has been achieved before 2030?
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Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030?
Will we get AGI before 2029?
45% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
5% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
59% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2047?
87% chance
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2032
Will we get AGI before 2046?
86% chance
Will we get AGI before 2045?
86% chance
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Gary Marcus has stated that AGI has been achieved in his Substack post today, discussing an unreleased GPT-5 demo.
https://open.substack.com/pub/garymarcus/p/breaking-gpt-5-news
@MalachiteEagle It was. I was hoping for a greater fool. Just a quick pump and dump for me, as a treat.
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Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030?
Will we get AGI before 2029?
45% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
5% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
59% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2047?
87% chance
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2032
Will we get AGI before 2046?
86% chance
Will we get AGI before 2045?
86% chance