MANIFOLD
Will Daniel Litt win his $25,000 bet that David Budden will not solve the Hodge conjecture?
109
Ṁ1kṀ120k
resolved Mar 13
Resolved
YES

https://x.com/davidmbudden/status/2002213723046281725

Resolves N/A if the bet is called off, unless it was due to Daniel's psychosis clause. That'll still resolve this to YES, since Daniel won and was being magnanimous.

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@IsaacKing https://x.com/littmath/status/2031912703455813867

@adonisds https://x.com/littmath/status/2032156138829946963

I’m pretty happy with this one

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

the problem with fake money prediction markets is that gambling feels too fun...

Definitely seems to be coherently saying that he's not experiencing AI psychosis 🤷

Looks a hell of a lot like an episode of mania from a distance though 😶

Now I'm starting to get concerned that we're heading towards a situation where whenever someone gets excited about something it's going to make people around them suspicious that it's the AI 😂


he posted some paper related to Hodge but not the one the bet is about

https://github.com/BuddenD/hodge-x33/blob/main/hodge-x33-draft.pdf

Is this david stupid?

@121 IQ is not protective against LLM psychosis

Another order at 67% here!

@bens 67 🥀

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