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The resolution of the market was particularly interesting, along with acc earning the most profit in a market of this size

@firstuserhere I second that. I fully expected this to resolve NO.

There's been a decided downwards trend in this market ever since halfway through, with a sharp drop near the end. I expect this is normal time decay, as people assumed that I'd resolve this market to YES as soon as something interesting happened, and that therefore the fact that it hadn't resolved was evidence against YES, and amount of time left for things to occur was decreasing. This seems like a questionable assumption, and it's particularly interesting given the fact that, as a market that I have pretty much full control over, one would expect it to stay around 50%.

@IsaacKing Huge Acceleration bot W

What, specifically, did you find interesting in the market?

My interpretation was that people were betting it down because nothing interesting had happened.

This seems like a questionable assumption, and it's particularly interesting given the fact that, as a market that I have pretty much full control over, one would expect it to stay around 50%.

A literal reading of this implies this means you'd resolve it randomly, as opposed to based on if something interesting happened?

I imagine another factor in betting it down was that you had responded to most comments saying that they weren't interesting enough?

@jacksonpolack I never said that!

... Never said what?

The claim that the price should stay near 50% does seem to imply we shouldn't have tried to observe if anything actually interesting happened and bet on that? That's not really fun.

Also, you didn't answer what you found particularly interesting

@IsaacKing I came here to see what interesting thing has happened on this market, but I don't quite see it. But I guess I was holding YES shares at the end, so I guess I shouldn't be complaining... :-)

@jacksonpolack The fact that the market was trending downwards towards the end is what was particularly interesting.

that is, tbh, not even somewhat interesting. unless the interesting part is you tricking people by resolving the market however you feel? which isn't really fun to participate in

@jacksonpolack I mean there were other interesting things. I was not expecting this to get 78 traders.

a lot of markets get 78 traders! including a lot of silly ones! oh well

@jacksonpolack I think your unhappiness is reasonable, but I also think there would have been similar unhappiness if I had resolved NO. This was always going to be a pretty arbitrary resolution, and I did find this market interesting enough to check in on it and spend time thinking about it.

I don't think there'd be any unhappiness about a no resolution, because people mostly thought it was going to resolve no because nothing interesting happened, hence the price

Ooooooh. Only 3 more traders needed and then this market will definitely be interesting:

@DanielParker Ooooh. 68 unique traders now. Only one more needed to make this a nice (and therefore interesting) number.

@DanielParker We missed it. :'(

@IsaacKing We can still make it! 70 is 69 + 1, which means it's value is the combination of the nicest number and the most unique number. Still sounds interesting to me!

The set of all expressible markets is countable, thus by the interesting number paradox, all markets are interesting.

@Abhimanyupallavisudhirvoi This observation seems rather uninteresting, I thought of it days ago.

@IsaacKing This observation does not have to be interesting for the market to be interesting.

Dear diary,

Today was pretty good. I went for a great run and almost beat my personal best time. Been listening to the Joseph Goldstein track on the Waking Up app. Good vibes. Then I went in to work. Got some good collaboration done on cross-platform journey proposal. Daughter was sick so wife brought her home early. Picked up son from daycare. Watched ‘underwater animals’ on TV until kids fell asleep. Hopefully family stays well tomorrow and I can go bouldering.

Sincerely,

Me

@Anton von Hunerbein 's trade is interesting. Idk if it's "particularly" interesting though.

@ElmerFudd Agreed. Someone unwisely betting their entire balance on a single question is not that uncommon on Manifold, but it doesn't happen every day...

I watch the bets and it does, in fact, happen every day. I'd have to check, but my guess is it happens several times a day.

@jacksonpolack Hmm. Maybe not all that interesting then.

Interesting that I don't see it that often, I figured it was a rarer occurrence.