Will any Manifold employee make top 4 of the Manifold MTG tournament?
17
310Ṁ3035resolved May 6
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
@Austin and @DavidChee are both playing. Will they bring fame and fortune to their platform's reputation? Or will they perish?
In the event that someone else is hired by Manifold, they'll count too, but they have to actually be an employee in a meaningful way.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@ian and @mqp have just joined the tournament, doubling the number of employees who can resolve this to YES. If we assume that they each have an equal chance of making top 8 as the other participants (pretty reasonable given that half of them won round 1 and half of them lost), then this market should be at 1 - ((12/16) * (11/15) * (10/14) * (9/13)), or ~73%.
