Will any Manifold employee make top 4 of the Manifold MTG tournament?

17

resolved May 6

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

@Austin and @DavidChee are both playing. Will they bring fame and fortune to their platform's reputation? Or will they perish?

In the event that someone else is hired by Manifold, they'll count too, but they have to actually be an employee in a meaningful way.

Update: @ian and @mqp have now also joined contention.

February MTG tournament

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Wobbles	Ṁ94
2	Marshall Polaris	Ṁ67
3	SirSalty	Ṁ36
4	Tyler Coleman	Ṁ29
5	Pat Myron	Ṁ29

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Is this MTG the card game "Magic The Gathering"?

Tyler Colemanpredicted YES at 98%

@NicholasKross Yes, that's the expansion of the acronym.

@TylerColeman OK thank you

Isaacbought Ṁ30 of YES

@ian and @mqp have just joined the tournament, doubling the number of employees who can resolve this to YES. If we assume that they each have an equal chance of making top 8 as the other participants (pretty reasonable given that half of them won round 1 and half of them lost), then this market should be at 1 - ((12/16) * (11/15) * (10/14) * (9/13)), or ~73%.

SirSaltypredicted YES at 53%

I practiced for 6 hours today...

Wobblesbought Ṁ10 of YES

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