Will any Manifold employee make top 4 of the Manifold MTG tournament?

Ṁ3K

Ṁ310

resolved May 6

Resolved

YES

ALL

@Austin and @DavidChee are both playing. Will they bring fame and fortune to their platform's reputation? Or will they perish?

In the event that someone else is hired by Manifold, they'll count too, but they have to actually be an employee in a meaningful way.

Update: @ian and @mqp have now also joined contention.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ94
2		Ṁ67
3		Ṁ36
4		Ṁ29
5		Ṁ29

6 Comments

15 Holders

40 Trades

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Is this MTG the card game "Magic The Gathering"?

predicted YES

@NicholasKross Yes, that's the expansion of the acronym.

@TylerColeman OK thank you

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@ian and @mqp have just joined the tournament, doubling the number of employees who can resolve this to YES. If we assume that they each have an equal chance of making top 8 as the other participants (pretty reasonable given that half of them won round 1 and half of them lost), then this market should be at 1 - ((12/16) * (11/15) * (10/14) * (9/13)), or ~73%.