Will any Manifold employee make top 4 of the Manifold MTG tournament?

17

resolved May 6

Resolved

YES1D

1W

1M

ALL

@Austin and @DavidChee are both playing. Will they bring fame and fortune to their platform's reputation? Or will they perish?

In the event that someone else is hired by Manifold, they'll count too, but they have to actually be an employee in a meaningful way.

# 🏅 Top traders

# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|

1 | Ṁ94 | |

2 | Ṁ67 | |

3 | Ṁ36 | |

4 | Ṁ29 | |

5 | Ṁ29 |

Sort by:

@ian and @mqp have just joined the tournament, doubling the number of employees who can resolve this to YES. If we assume that they each have an equal chance of making top 8 as the other participants (pretty reasonable given that half of them won round 1 and half of them lost), then this market should be at 1 - ((12/16) * (11/15) * (10/14) * (9/13)), or ~73%.

Sort by:

9 YES payouts

Ṁ951

Ṁ567

Ṁ454

Ṁ106

Ṁ81

Ṁ68

Ṁ52

Ṁ33

Ṁ27

6 NO payouts

Ṁ156

Ṁ105

Ṁ23

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## Related markets

At the end of the Manifold MTG tournament, will I have the highest total profit on the leaderboard?4%

At the end of the Manifold MTG tournament, will Wobbles have the highest total profit on the leaderboard?2%

Will anyone be disqualified from a Magic tournament for betting on it on Manifold by the end of 2023?10%