Will any Manifold employee make top 4 of the Manifold MTG tournament?
resolved May 6

@Austin and @DavidChee are both playing. Will they bring fame and fortune to their platform's reputation? Or will they perish?

In the event that someone else is hired by Manifold, they'll count too, but they have to actually be an employee in a meaningful way.

Update: @ian and @mqp have now also joined contention.

🏅 Top traders

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NicholasKross avatar
Nicholas Kross

Is this MTG the card game "Magic The Gathering"?

TylerColeman avatar
Tyler Colemanpredicted YES at 98%

@NicholasKross Yes, that's the expansion of the acronym.

NicholasKross avatar
Nicholas Kross

@TylerColeman OK thank you

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacbought Ṁ30 of YES

@ian and @mqp have just joined the tournament, doubling the number of employees who can resolve this to YES. If we assume that they each have an equal chance of making top 8 as the other participants (pretty reasonable given that half of them won round 1 and half of them lost), then this market should be at 1 - ((12/16) * (11/15) * (10/14) * (9/13)), or ~73%.

DavidChee avatar
SirSaltypredicted YES at 53%

I practiced for 6 hours today...

Wobbles avatar
Wobblesbought Ṁ10 of YES

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