Will any image-generation AI be able to consistently draw simple polygons by the end of 2024?
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2025
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chance

My attempts to get DALL-E 2 to draw very simple shapes went... poorly.

(https://outsidetheasylum.blog/testing-dall-e-2-mathematics-comprehension/)

When this market closes, I'll test out the most advanced image-generation models that I was able to get access to. If there are multiple, I'll try them all.

If any of them can consistently return a pentagon from the description "a pentagon", a heptagon from the description "a heptagon", and similar, I'll resolve to YES. If they need a bit of nudging like specific prompt wording but can still generalize correctly to any polygon, that'll be good enough to resolve YES. Otherwise I'll resolve NO.

A model that was trained specifically to make geometric shapes doesn't count; it has to be a generalist like DALL-E 2. In order for a new model to qualify for this market, it needs to be no worse than DALL-E 2 at the vast majority of things it's asked to draw.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

@IsaacKing is the EOY for this market 2023 or 2024? The title says "end of 2024", but the market itself is marked "Jan 1". I'm making a bet only if it's the end of 2023

@LukaChrelashvili Whoops, sorry about that. I think more people are likely to go by the title rather than end date, so I've changed the end date to match the title.

bought Ṁ35 of NO

DALL-E 3 can't create a pentagon or any convex polygon other than a square and a triangle. Even if I specify or nudge the prompts by saying "shape with 5 sides", the resulting image almost always shows a hexagon.

Shape words are very hard. Be more explicit here. Most babies cannot understand more sophisticated shape words.

@EnopoletusHarding What do I need to be more explicit about?

@IsaacKing There is no basic difference between machine and human intelligence. You would not ask a one year old child to draw you a "pentagon", whatever that is. Ask it to draw a form with five sides or whatever words will be appropriate.

@EnopoletusHarding I tried that too, didn't work.

predicts YES

@IsaacKing Can't count to five iirc