When will the Wobbles vs. Gustavo Mafra match take place?
8
3
resolved Mar 6
5%
10am EST
0.2%
10am PST
0.2%
10pm EST
0.2%
10pm PST
94%
Some other time

Context.

I'll go by the time the match begins, and round to the nearest hour. So if they start at 10:29, that counts as starting at 10. If they start at 10:31, that counts as starting at 11.

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bought Ṁ188 of 10am EST

@IsaacKing You are very good at making me lose money

bought Ṁ245 of Some other time

@DesTiny No credit needed! That's all you. 😉

sold Ṁ983 of 10am EST

10:22 am est it's started

sold Ṁ1,004 of 10am EST
bought Ṁ30 of Some other time

@firstuserhere This screenshot is from a practice game we played earlier than the actual tournament game. I didn't count but I believe this practice game went for over 8 minutes. Gonna leave @IsaacKing to decide what is the actual resolution criteria

@GustavoMafra Here you can see at what time the odds started changing:
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-gustavo-mafra-beat-wobbles-in

bought Ṁ200 of 10am EST

@GustavoMafra yeah you're right, its from the practice game. Did not count how long it went, so inclined to believe your estimate. Since you won around 10.56, I'd guess the practice game overshot 10.29

bought Ṁ5 of Some other time

@firstuserhere I was keeping track and the first real game started at 10:31. That side, people agreed on the call that it would count for being close to 10, so I think this should resolve as 10am.

@Gabrielle I didn't catch the part we agreed on resolving to 10 am, but I wouldn't mind if it does

@GustavoMafra "I'll go by the time the match begins" and "If they start at 10:31, that counts as starting at 11", so regardless of what people in the call decided, this would be resolved acc to this criteria. Which means not 10 am

sold Ṁ59 of 10am EST

Hmm, interesting conundrum. So it sounds like the match itself began after 10:30, but the players were in the voice call and doing game-related things before 10:30?

That does sound to me like this should resolve to "Some other time", though that's not really what I had in mind. The spirit of the market would have this resolve to 10am EST, but the description pretty clearly says otherwise, and I try to abide by the written description when it's clear and unambiguous.

Any counterarguments?

@IsaacKing We were doing practice rounds at 10:20, I think that would constitute when the games began

@DesTiny If practice rounds counted as part of the match, then some people's matches started days ago. That's not what "match" means.

sold Ṁ96 of 10am EST

imagine the game doesn't work and it becomes past 10:29 am est lol