If the long reflection begins, will it end within 2x its advertised duration? | Manifold

If the long reflection begins, will it end within 2x its advertised duration?

#Philosophy #Existential Risk #Effective Altruism

7

46

Ṁ117

Ṁ110

9999

65%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/long-reflection-is-crazy-bad-ideahtml

e.g. if humanity originally coordinates to pause for 10,000 years, this market resolves NO if they're still doing it after 20,000.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related in Philosophy

Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)

Over (yes)/underrated (no) intellectuals according to Manifold [resolves to poll]

See more Philosophy questions

Related in Existential Risk

Proof of avoidance of human extinction within a year?

-25% 1d25% chance

Will humanity survive until 2100?

See more Existential Risk questions

Related in Effective Altruism

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

See more Effective Altruism questions

More related questions

Will the runtime of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be longer than 2 hours & 20 minutes?

Will I think that 80,000 hours has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?

Will the scientific consensus that the universe's expansion is accelerating end before 2028?

Philosophy questions

Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)

Over (yes)/underrated (no) intellectuals according to Manifold [resolves to poll]

Existential Risk questions

Proof of avoidance of human extinction within a year?

Will humanity survive until 2100?

Effective Altruism questions

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Related questions

Will the runtime of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be longer than 2 hours & 20 minutes?

Will the scientific consensus that the universe's expansion is accelerating end before 2028?

Will I think that 80,000 hours has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?