If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?
27
2.4k
2030
92%
chance

See this tweet for the context. (In order for this market to resolve YES, the offer must have followed the terms in that tweet.)

Resolves N/A if the above market resolves NO.

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Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by string

apparently someone made a prediction market out of this https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-someone-offers-to-pay-eliezer-yu https://twitter.com/randomstring729/status/1598492458672955398

... is this something we expect Eliezer needs to be paid to do? I'm at like 40% he's already done so anonymously

Eliezer says in the tweet that he would do it for 1 million dollars. However, the market itself doesn't specify that the person offering the money would offer that amount. The market as written should resolve if he's offered 1 dollar and then declines.

Specificity in markets is important

predicts YES

@Mqrius The reason I linked to the tweet is to provide the context that makes it clear what the market is asking about.

The title says "follow through", not "accept", which implies a prior commitment.

Am I ... missing something here?

@Boklam Maybe? What was your reasoning for this being unlikely? Yudkowsky suggested he would do this if someone paid him enough. He is already writing fiction that is rather explicit: https://www.projectlawful.com/board_sections/703

predicts NO

@Tassilo >> Yudkowsky suggested he would do this if someone paid him enough

This is exactly what I'm missing, thanks :)

predicts NO

@Tassilo Well that looks like a fun read, there goes my weekend productivity :)

@Tassilo How much is enough though?

predicts YES

@Writer as far as I can tell, Isaac made this in response to this tweet, so enough would be 1 Million dollars worth of Bitcoin/ETH/XTZ as far as I understand.

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