If someone accepts Eliezer Yudkowsky's offer to write an HPMOR sex scene in return for payment, will he follow through?

See this tweet for the context. (In order for this market to resolve YES, the offer must have followed the terms in that tweet.)

Resolves N/A if the above market resolves NO.

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Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by string

apparently someone made a prediction market out of this https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-someone-offers-to-pay-eliezer-yu https://twitter.com/randomstring729/status/1598492458672955398

... is this something we expect Eliezer needs to be paid to do? I'm at like 40% he's already done so anonymously

Eliezer says in the tweet that he would do it for 1 million dollars. However, the market itself doesn't specify that the person offering the money would offer that amount. The market as written should resolve if he's offered 1 dollar and then declines.

Specificity in markets is important

predicts YES

@Mqrius The reason I linked to the tweet is to provide the context that makes it clear what the market is asking about.

The title says "follow through", not "accept", which implies a prior commitment.

Am I ... missing something here?

@Boklam Maybe? What was your reasoning for this being unlikely? Yudkowsky suggested he would do this if someone paid him enough. He is already writing fiction that is rather explicit: https://www.projectlawful.com/board_sections/703

predicts NO

@Tassilo >> Yudkowsky suggested he would do this if someone paid him enough

This is exactly what I'm missing, thanks :)

predicts NO

@Tassilo Well that looks like a fun read, there goes my weekend productivity :)

@Tassilo How much is enough though?

predicts YES

@Writer as far as I can tell, Isaac made this in response to this tweet, so enough would be 1 Million dollars worth of Bitcoin/ETH/XTZ as far as I understand.

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