I was intrigued by this post, and my ability to defy the base rates of financial responsibility in such a situation.

This market resolves if I win at least $5 million in a lottery or other surprise windfall. It resolves to YES if, within the next 10 years there is some 6 month period where I'd rate my quality of life as significantly lower than my average before I won, and it seems that the cause for that decrease was somehow related to the win. Otherwise it resolves NO.

See also /IsaacKing/will-i-win-the-lottery-within-the-n