Inspired by https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/i-offered-people-10000-to-take-off
If this market gets enough interest or I otherwise gain at least $20 of motivation, I may choose to do this on a future flight. (I fly several times a month.) This market resolves if/when I do that, based on the result.
I won't make the offer to anyone for whom I have significant additional information about their masking preferences past the simple fact that they're wearing one. (e.g. I won't ask someone who has expressed a verbal opinion to me about whether they'd accept, or is wearing a shirt with some statement about the importance of masking on it.)
I'll offer no later than halfway through the flight.
My offer will be phrased along the lines of "I have a weird experiment that some aquaintances and I are trying to resolve. No problem if you don't want to accept, I know this is strange, it's just an offer that you can accept or decline as you wish." No substantive political or scientific claims will be made unless they ask for further information, and I'll try to avoid implying that I'd prefer a certain outcome.
The "end of the flight" for the purposes of this market is defined as the moment the plane touches down on the ground.
I'll give them the $20 as soon as they accept and take off their mask. (I don't want them to have to worry I'm going to renege on the offer once we land.) If they put it back on after I give them the $20, I'll try to get my $20 back and this market will resolve NO. (Unless they only put it back on shortly before we land, in which case I'll be lenient and still let that count.)
To let traders have more fun, if I run this experiment, I won't resolve the market immediately. Instead I'll let people ask me questions about the context, such as various characteristics of the person I asked and my approach, and they can bet on my answers. Then afterwards I'll reveal what happened and resolve the market. (Ideally I'd just share that info live, but I won't have internet on the plane, so I'll just simulate that after I land.)
1,000
3.00When would you ask?
I wear a mask in the airport, into the ascent phase, and from the beginning of the descent phase, because getting myself and other people sick sucks and it's painless and easy. I take it off for the level flight phase because the ventillation system is doing a good job at that point and the cost/benefit is less clear. So if you asked me after the engines spooled up, I'd probably say yes.
(It's only "probably" because your spending energy on this question suggests you're the sort of person who trivializes virus risks and resents others taking safety measures, which (a) is a signal that you're a riskier person to be around and (b) means taking the money gives you validation for your weird hobbyhorse.)
At this point covid is less of a concern, so more likely yes.
Although the fact that people were offered $10k to do this before and declined makes me.,. lose a lot of faith in humanity.
@ShadowyZephyr could you provide evidence of people being honestly offered $10k and declining?
@ShadowyZephyr The kind of person wo still wears a mask would have to be someone very neurotic, with a compromised immune system or someone who is very risk averse and doesn't want to die (probably most are neurotic). Those people won't take off their masks.
@ShadowyZephyr after reading some more of what that author posted I now assume a negative correlation coefficient between his words and truth, for example: https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/up-to-m1000-for-evidence-there-is-a
@IsaacKing Honestly I think even with 0 rizz and the worst possible approach, it’s at least 50% likely.
In fact, I’d say that acceptance probably has nothing to do with your approach, and more to do with the person you ask.
Younger target = more likely
Older target = less likely
Female = less likely
Male = more likely
I’d put the chances of a <30yo male accepting at like 90%
@Gen Interesting. I agree that all those factors seem relevant, but I actually give them the opposite sign!
I think most people wearing masks on planes tend to be doing it not for their own safety, but out of a sense of duty to society/tribal signaling. Young people are more likely to have a fierce tribal affiliation in the culture war, so I think a younger person is less likely to accept.
I also think being with a friend is a significant increase in the desire to signal tribal loyalty, and that should reduce the acceptance probability too.
Here's what I'll do, to let traders have more fun. If I run this experiment, I won't resolve the market immediately. Instead I'll let people ask me questions about the context, such as various characteristics of the person I asked and my approach, and they can bet on my answers. Then afterwards I'll reveal what happened and resolve the market.
(Ideally I'd just share that info live, but I won't have internet on the plane, so I'll just simulate that after I land.)
@MP Some countries still require masks, so if you were flying to/from one of those countries, that's probably why.
Back when Canada required masks, flights from Canada to the US required masks until we were parked at the gate. This was prior to deboarding, so this made no sense whatsoever, but that was the rule.
People wearing masks at this point are doing it because they feel it's very important to their health. These aren't the folks who begrudgingly did it a year or two ago because airlines were forcing them. No way are they going to feel like their health (or their perception of their health) is worth $20.
@jonsimon Although I could maybe see it working if the person asking was an usually charismatic charmer. Those people carry around a reality distortion field with them. Might make for a fun follow-up experiment.