What is even going on with this market???

this is a very weird and antisocial thing to consider doing

At this point covid is less of a concern, so more likely yes.

Although the fact that people were offered $10k to do this before and declined makes me.,. lose a lot of faith in humanity.

@ShadowyZephyr could you provide evidence of people being honestly offered $10k and declining?

@ShadowyZephyr The kind of person wo still wears a mask would have to be someone very neurotic, with a compromised immune system or someone who is very risk averse and doesn't want to die (probably most are neurotic). Those people won't take off their masks.

@ShadowyZephyr after reading some more of what that author posted I now assume a negative correlation coefficient between his words and truth, for example: https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/up-to-m1000-for-evidence-there-is-a

Can we get an NA here? @IsaacKing

@JimAusman I might still do it! People still wear masks on flights from time to time.

I'm gonna be flying on Wednesday. Don't think the current market strongly enough incentivizes me to do it considering the $20 cost and my social awkwardness and desire to not be perceived as rude or weird.

@IsaacKing who's fault is that?

I'm surprised nobody has asked me more questions about the plan. I suspect the correct probability depends heavily on questions like

• Will I be wearing a mask myself?

• Will I try to engage in friendly chatter with them first, or just spring the offer on them out of nowhere?

@IsaacKing Honestly I think even with 0 rizz and the worst possible approach, it’s at least 50% likely.

In fact, I’d say that acceptance probably has nothing to do with your approach, and more to do with the person you ask.

Younger target = more likely

Older target = less likely

Female = less likely

Male = more likely

I’d put the chances of a <30yo male accepting at like 90%

@Gen Also if that person is

Alone = less likely

With a friend = more likely

@Gen Interesting. I agree that all those factors seem relevant, but I actually give them the opposite sign!

I think most people wearing masks on planes tend to be doing it not for their own safety, but out of a sense of duty to society/tribal signaling. Young people are more likely to have a fierce tribal affiliation in the culture war, so I think a younger person is less likely to accept.

I also think being with a friend is a significant increase in the desire to signal tribal loyalty, and that should reduce the acceptance probability too.

Here's what I'll do, to let traders have more fun. If I run this experiment, I won't resolve the market immediately. Instead I'll let people ask me questions about the context, such as various characteristics of the person I asked and my approach, and they can bet on my answers. Then afterwards I'll reveal what happened and resolve the market.

(Ideally I'd just share that info live, but I won't have internet on the plane, so I'll just simulate that after I land.)

I usually wear my mask in the airport and until they turn on the air circulation on the plane, then take it off. I would certainly take your money if you offered it soon enough!

Are masks required in such plane? A recent flight I took required masks, but some people, including me, took their masks off whenever the attendants left our area.

@MP I don't believe US flights still require masks.

@IsaacKing hm, it was an international flight

@MP Some countries still require masks, so if you were flying to/from one of those countries, that's probably why.

Back when Canada required masks, flights from Canada to the US required masks until we were parked at the gate. This was prior to deboarding, so this made no sense whatsoever, but that was the rule.

@IsaacKing yes, I was flying from Colombia to the US.

People wearing masks at this point are doing it because they feel it's very important to their health. These aren't the folks who begrudgingly did it a year or two ago because airlines were forcing them. No way are they going to feel like their health (or their perception of their health) is worth $20.

@jonsimon Although I could maybe see it working if the person asking was an usually charismatic charmer. Those people carry around a reality distortion field with them. Might make for a fun follow-up experiment.

@jonsimon My charisma is unusually low, does that count?

@IsaacKing Who knows, maybe it wraps around?

@jonsimon @IsaacKing the good old horseshoe charisma theory