Inspired by https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/i-offered-people-10000-to-take-off
If this market gets enough interest or I otherwise gain at least $20 of motivation, I may choose to do this on a future flight. (I fly several times a month.) This market resolves if/when I do that, based on the result.
I won't make the offer to anyone for whom I have significant additional information about their masking preferences past the simple fact that they're wearing one. (e.g. I won't ask someone who has expressed a verbal opinion to me about whether they'd accept, or is wearing a shirt with some statement about the importance of masking on it.)
I'll offer no later than halfway through the flight.
My offer will be phrased along the lines of "I have a weird experiment that some aquaintances and I are trying to resolve. No problem if you don't want to accept, I know this is strange, it's just an offer that you can accept or decline as you wish." No substantive political or scientific claims will be made unless they ask for further information, and I'll try to avoid implying that I'd prefer a certain outcome.
The "end of the flight" for the purposes of this market is defined as the moment the plane touches down on the ground.
I'll give them the $20 as soon as they accept and take off their mask. (I don't want them to have to worry I'm going to renege on the offer once we land.) If they put it back on after I give them the $20, I'll try to get my $20 back and this market will resolve NO. (Unless they only put it back on shortly before we land, in which case I'll be lenient and still let that count.)
To let traders have more fun, if I run this experiment, I won't resolve the market immediately. Instead I'll let people ask me questions about the context, such as various characteristics of the person I asked and my approach, and they can bet on my answers. Then afterwards I'll reveal what happened and resolve the market. (Ideally I'd just share that info live, but I won't have internet on the plane, so I'll just simulate that after I land.)
I'm surprised nobody has asked me more questions about the plan. I suspect the correct probability depends heavily on questions like
Will I be wearing a mask myself?
Will I try to engage in friendly chatter with them first, or just spring the offer on them out of nowhere?
@IsaacKing Honestly I think even with 0 rizz and the worst possible approach, it’s at least 50% likely.
In fact, I’d say that acceptance probably has nothing to do with your approach, and more to do with the person you ask.
Younger target = more likely
Older target = less likely
Female = less likely
Male = more likely
I’d put the chances of a <30yo male accepting at like 90%
@Gen Interesting. I agree that all those factors seem relevant, but I actually give them the opposite sign!
I think most people wearing masks on planes tend to be doing it not for their own safety, but out of a sense of duty to society/tribal signaling. Young people are more likely to have a fierce tribal affiliation in the culture war, so I think a younger person is less likely to accept.
I also think being with a friend is a significant increase in the desire to signal tribal loyalty, and that should reduce the acceptance probability too.
Here's what I'll do, to let traders have more fun. If I run this experiment, I won't resolve the market immediately. Instead I'll let people ask me questions about the context, such as various characteristics of the person I asked and my approach, and they can bet on my answers. Then afterwards I'll reveal what happened and resolve the market.
(Ideally I'd just share that info live, but I won't have internet on the plane, so I'll just simulate that after I land.)
I usually wear my mask in the airport and until they turn on the air circulation on the plane, then take it off. I would certainly take your money if you offered it soon enough!
Are masks required in such plane? A recent flight I took required masks, but some people, including me, took their masks off whenever the attendants left our area.
@MP I don't believe US flights still require masks.
@IsaacKing hm, it was an international flight
@MP Some countries still require masks, so if you were flying to/from one of those countries, that's probably why.
Back when Canada required masks, flights from Canada to the US required masks until we were parked at the gate. This was prior to deboarding, so this made no sense whatsoever, but that was the rule.
@IsaacKing yes, I was flying from Colombia to the US.
People wearing masks at this point are doing it because they feel it's very important to their health. These aren't the folks who begrudgingly did it a year or two ago because airlines were forcing them. No way are they going to feel like their health (or their perception of their health) is worth $20.
@jonsimon My charisma is unusually low, does that count?
@IsaacKing Who knows, maybe it wraps around?
@jonsimon @IsaacKing the good old horseshoe charisma theory
I’m not sure why Kirsch thinks this proved anything. People don’t casually give away $10,000 (or $100,000!). If Kirsch didn’t bring a briefcase of cash or a contract, there’s no reason the other person should believe Kirsch’s offer is credible.
I would guess that people are more likely to accept the credible $20 offer compared with Kirsh’s incredible version.
@JimHays Yeah, that's why this is a real offer rather than a hypothetical to which people can costlessly answer "no" and gain signaling points.
@harfe Good idea. I'll change the plan unless anyone objects.
@JimHays Kirsch was not offering $10,000, it was all a hypothetical. Though he certainly does seem have some strange crusade against responsible mask wearing.
@JimAusman I don't think it's all that strange. Wearing a mask in an airplane is a pefectly reasonable thing to do. Not wearing one is also perfectly reasonable. Reasonable people are willing to change from one reasonable thing to another for a relatively small incentive. If even large incentives would not induce someone to change, that suggests they may not have a balanced perspective on mask-wearing.
$10 in second to last paragraph is presumably meant to be $20?
@jfjurchen Yes, thank you. Fixed.