Has Manifold figured out a satisfactory self-resolving market mechanism? | Manifold

Has Manifold figured out a satisfactory self-resolving market mechanism?

Manifold•Manifold Features•Manifold Adoption

24

126

resolved Feb 4

Yes

No

See this market for the context and details of what I'm asking about: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-manifold-figure-out-a-satisfac

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IDK people, we have a literally unanimous vote here. That seems pretty good to me! 😉

Will this be a solved problem by the end of 2023? Will Manifold eventually settle on a single type of market that self-resolves robustly and to everyone's satisfaction? (Or a few different types for different situations.)

I would say resolve-to-poll works moderately well, but definitely not robustly and to everyone's satisfaction.

This seems like the most satisfactory available way to resolve that market! But not fully satisfactory, so I'm voting No.

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Will Manifold implement hierarchical groups and subgroups by the end of 2024?

Will there be a third official Manifold derivative product before June?

Manifold Adoption questions

Will Freddie DeBoer join Manifold by the end of 2024?

Will Gotham Chess (Levy Rozman) join Manifold before the end of 2027?

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Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

Will a large market be initially resolved to N/A, and unable to be properly re-resolved due to Manifold changes?

Will Manifold encourage or force users to resolve markets before deleting their account?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets in 2024?

Will Manifold ever stop misresolving their own markets?

When will the final resolved market on Manifold be resolved?

Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

Will manifold implement a "continuous" market?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?