Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself?
Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself?
88
1.1kṀ17k
2060
80%
chance

Resolves once I am highly confident (>98%) of the answer, based on strong evidence from multiple sources that have no significant incentive to engage in a cover-up or a smear campaign against a certain political party. If that never happens, this market never resolves.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading


Sort by:
3mo

No market for “ was Epstein an intelligence assets?” Curious no?

24d

@George No way, no evidence given.

10mo

How does it resolve if he was forced to kill himself?

1y

Yes, because he was >allowed to.<

1y

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ap-obtains-records-shedding-new-light-jeffrey-epsteins-99774326 imo this is pretty much definitive, and even if it doesn't clear the 98% threshold I think it's proof that yes should be a lot higher than it is. certainly not hard to believe the narrative presented here

New details of Jeffrey Epstein's death and the frantic aftermath revealed in records obtained by AP
The Associated Press has obtained more than 4,000 pages of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein’s jail suicide from the federal Bureau of Prisons under the Freedom of Information Act
predictedNO 1y

@FreshFrier that page no longer exists

predictedYES 1y

@B1e0e https://apnews.com/article/jeffrey-epstein-jail-suicide-prison-death-8d194a756f2b429067f009a0c70f96c0 here is the original ap article that all of that article's content was taken from

2y

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DZoGEHzZNRsMjfpfE/addendum-a-non-magical-explanation-of-jeffrey-epstein

2y

Meta: https://manifold.markets/brp/will-isaac-king-resolve-the-epstein

2y

Did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

2y
Comment hidden

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy