By the end of 2024, will any of my open markets have gotten no bets for a year?
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16
40
Ṁ310
2025
11%
chance

Any market going 1 year without a bet will resolve this to YES, even if it later gets a bet before the end of 2024. A limit order that is placed but not filled still counts as a bet.

If it looks like someone has made a bot to buy and then immediately sell M$1, or place and remove limit orders on all of my markets in order to manipulate this one, I will ignore those bets.

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bought Ṁ30 of NO

The "Ancient Market" quest seems like it will solve this problem, especially once there's a clean solution to surfacing ancient markets.

predicts YES

@Gabrielle How do you surface them?

predicts NO

@KatjaGrace Currently there's not a good way, but I'm working on a bot that will make a group containing ancient markets. It's going to take a bit, but it'll definitely be sooner than the end of 2024.

You could try to force YES by closing a market with no bets, then reopening a year later.

predicts YES

@JimHays I won't do that.

predicts YES
bought Ṁ20 of YES

Not looking great so far. Manifold doesn't boost old markets in any way, so they tend to get buried by the algorithm.

predicts NO

Do limit orders count?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Yev Never mind.

Does this mean no bets for any one-year period between now and then, or specifically no bets between the beginning and end of 2024?

@Multicore Any one year period.

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