At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?
11
1kṀ410
2029
24
expected

Inspired by Sam Altman's anti-prediction here.

For example, if the iPhone app costs $30,000 and plumbing costs $30, this resolves to 1000. If the iPhone app costs $30 and plumbing costs $300, this resolves to 0.1.

To determine the price of a plumbing job, I'll call up my local plumber (or the appropriate method of contact for plumbers in 2028) and ask for a quote on a job that would have cost around $300 in 2023.

To determine the price of an iPhone app, I'll email a mobile developer (or the appropriate method of contact for developers in 2028) and ask for a quote on a job that would have cost around $30,000 in 2023.

Feel free to suggest specific jobs in the comments that currently cost about that much and I'll formalize the resolution criteria further.

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I think human gatekeeping in name of AI safety will not allow the price ratio to change to much related to today

What if plumbers as we know it don't really exist in 5 years (very unlikely) lol

@DesTiny Then I'll go by the cost of the most similar job that exists. (Presumably if we're still alive, there will still be pipes to deliver fluids somewhere.)

predictedLOWER

@IsaacKing what if iphones or phones in general get outcompeted by some new product

@DesTiny Hmm, good question. I think it'd be best for me to stick with iPhone programming, even if iPhones are obsolete. (Since anything that replaces them would probably be more complicated and therefore not a fair comparison.) But I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

predictedLOWER

@IsaacKing What if the economy collapses and mana is the only currency left. Would you use that as your model, and if so would you relate it to the current USD->Mana conversion or an updated estimated conversion in 2028

@DesTiny Presumably USD still has some value in that scenario, even if it's much less than it is currently.

predictedLOWER

@IsaacKing But I mean like complete collapse to the point where it’s valued as equivalent to paper

@DesTiny If another currency has emerged that the world uses in a similar way to how USD is used today, I'll switch to that instead.

Otherwise, for the purposes of this market, ∞/∞ = 1.

predictedLOWER

@IsaacKing But is there a means as how you'll relate whatever the new currency to what it was before collapse

@DesTiny I can look at the prices of other goods to try to get an estimate.

predictedLOWER

@IsaacKing What happens if

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