At the end of 2028, how many times the price of a basic plumbing job will it cost to develop a simple iPhone app?
11
1kṀ410
2029
24
expected

Inspired by Sam Altman's anti-prediction here.

For example, if the iPhone app costs $30,000 and plumbing costs $30, this resolves to 1000. If the iPhone app costs $30 and plumbing costs $300, this resolves to 0.1.

To determine the price of a plumbing job, I'll call up my local plumber (or the appropriate method of contact for plumbers in 2028) and ask for a quote on a job that would have cost around $300 in 2023.

To determine the price of an iPhone app, I'll email a mobile developer (or the appropriate method of contact for developers in 2028) and ask for a quote on a job that would have cost around $30,000 in 2023.

Feel free to suggest specific jobs in the comments that currently cost about that much and I'll formalize the resolution criteria further.

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