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MANIFOLD
Time Machine Coin Flip: Coin 1
4
Ṁ100Ṁ47
resolved Jun 24
Resolved
NO

5 coin flips, 1 yes/no question

I will make 5 of these markets in the coming 10 days. The premise is simple:

Heads, Yes

Tails, No

Here's the twist: the 5 coin results are deterministic (precomputed and stored on my Notes app), and you have a Coin Time Machine which you can ask a yes/no question by messaging me (OP, Interrobang) in the Manifold messenger (or, if that doesn't work, via Discord at interrobang0).

Here's the catch: you only get one yes/no question per person, which has to last you all 5 coin flips, unless someone else shares their own answer.

For example: if you PMed me "for all coins that land Tails, does the coin after that also land Tails more than 50% of the time?", the machine returns Yes, and this market resolved No (tails), you could bet No on the next market and make profit.

These coin markets will resolve before the next one opens, so no more than one market will be open at any time.

I reserve the right to bend these rules if I get stranded on a deserted island or if I particularly feel like it.

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reposted

Hey everybody, let's conspire to make this really boring!

Invitation to form a five-member club to ask about the outcome of each of the five flips. (DMs only; see last sentence for why.) I will assign a flip to ask about. If there are more than five members, I will assign multiple members to one or more flips to guard against Byzantine failures.