If Vladimir Putin loses power before the end of 2024, will Aleksander Lukashenko lose power within a year?
If Vladimir Putin loses power before the end of 2024, will Aleksander Lukashenko lose power within a year?
15
1kṀ533resolved Jan 31
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves N/A if any of these hold:
a) Putin stays in power until Jan 01, 2025
b) Lukashenko loses power while Putin remains the president of Russia
Same question, but different time interval:
...within a year? (You are here)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Vladimir Putin and Aleksander Lukashenko lose power within one year of each other?
65% chance
Will Vladimir Putin lose political power in Russia before 2026?
11% chance
Will Lukashenko still be the President of Belarus by the end of 2025?
86% chance
Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2025?
96% chance
Will Putin still be in power by the end of 2026?
91% chance
Will Lukashenko still be the President of Belarus by the end of 2026?
78% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026?
89% chance
Will Alexander Lukashenko remain President of Belarus by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will Lukashenko be president of Belarus by the end of 2027?
96% chance