This market predicts the official conclusion of the investigations into the recent Baltic Sea cable damage, as reported by Guardian for example. Investigations are being conducted by Germany, Finland, and Sweden.

The market will resolve based on the consensus from the investigating countries Germany, Finland, and Sweden. The conclusion must be publicly stated and reported in a reputable source.

• If and when at least two of the three countries agree on a cause, the market will resolve to the respective conclusion.

• If fewer than two countries come to the same conclusion by 31.03.2025, the question will resolve as Ambiguous.

• Russia: Investigations conclude the damage was caused by deliberate actions linked to Russia. Accidental damage by a Russian civilian ship also counts, in case Russia does not condemn and punish the ship's crew.

• Accident or Natural Event: The cause is determined to be accidental (e.g., fishing equipment or ship anchor of non-Russian ship) or a natural event (e.g., undersea landslide)

Edit: two different cable disruptions have been reported in quick succession. In the unlikely event that the two are unrelated, the market will resolve to Russia if either of the two turn out to be the result of Russian action.