The market resolves at a random time between 24 hours from opening and the end of April. The probability of the market 24 hours before close determines the result:

- less than 45% - resolves YES.
- greater than 55% - resolves NO.
- 45 to 55% inclusive - resolves as it would resolve prior to entering that zone.

For example, if the probability 24 hrs before close is 52% having previously been at 60% it would resolve NO, but if it had previously been at 44% it would resolve YES.

I will bet once to kick the market off, and then sell that once it's moving.