Astable Multivibrator: resolves against the state of the market 24 hours ago.
#Fun#Self-resolving
7
95
Ṁ130
resolved Apr 17
Resolved
YES

The market resolves at a random time between 24 hours from opening and the end of April. The probability of the market 24 hours before close determines the result:

- less than 45% - resolves YES.
- greater than 55% - resolves NO.
- 45 to 55% inclusive - resolves as it would resolve prior to entering that zone.

For example, if the probability 24 hrs before close is 52% having previously been at 60% it would resolve NO, but if it had previously been at 44% it would resolve YES.

I will bet once to kick the market off, and then sell that once it's moving.

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Just to clarify, in the 45-55 case the valid probability (>55%, or <45%) that the market was at most recently before that time is taken as a value that determines the outcome, like running the probability over time through a Schmitt trigger and then a NOT gate?

@wundrodon You've got it precisely.

The optimal strategy is to wait for extreme values and buy. If the result is 50% then you get a better deal by cheaper shares than caring about the outcome.

Blake3 hash of UTC resolution time (plus some random padding): 51195bdf9f0ab6d49b514ca2cfdb41ee42a231d0cf826b547cd09e3833a0527f

@Imuli I'm just getting back to my computer today, so close time was at 18:42 UTC.

Wrk6W8pI4NKY6x9m2ady

2023-04-17 18:42:16

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