Will exactly one thing happen by Halloween?
88
1.1kṀ38k
resolved Nov 3
Resolved
YES

@Joshua thinks nothing ever happens, and has outlined "what counts as something happening" in the linked market.

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-by-hallowe?r=SW1EYW5pZWw

But what if only one thing happens?

This market resolves yes if Joshua deems exactly one event has occurred by Halloween.

This market resolves no if Joshua deems that no event or more than one event occurred by Halloween.

Will Nothing Ever Happen By Halloween?
66% chance. Often we have a lot of debate over whether Something Is Going To Happen, but usually it ends up Not Happening. I am beginning to suspect that Nothing Ever Happens. [image]Above is a list of all questions with more than 1K traders at time of market creation. Looking at this list, the last time that Something Happened was in April when Donald Trump was arraigned for the first time. Nothing Has Ever Happened since then, by these standards. This question resolves YES iff by market close no question listed above, or any question that has as many traders as one of those questions at time of its resolution, resolves because Something Happened. Notably, this does not resolve if such a market resolves because of Nothing Happening. For example, if the main LK-99 market resolves YES by Halloween then Something Has Happened and this resolves NO, but if the LK-99 market resolves NO then Nothing Is Continuing To Ever Happen and this market would still be on track to resolve YES. I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased about what counts as Something Ever Happening.
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predictedYES

@ImDaniel resolves to Yes! I deem only one event has happened.

predictedYES

so what can we make happen tomorrow?

Oh this is actually an interesting market. the title made it seem boring.

predictedYES

It'd be really funny if a nuclear test happened in the next week

@Joshua "funny"

@FlorisvanDoorn Funny queer, not funny haha.

predictedNO

So is there a market like this that has resolved yet, or not?

predictedNO

If not, 18% seems outrageous. On the other hand, if one has happened, and nothing else, it should be a lot higher.

predictedYES

The speaker of the house market has a chance, I think

I put a large limit order on the current price, if someone wants it

@Shump I've lost a bit of confidence, so it's nice to dilute my position. thanks!

predictedYES

@Stralor Feel free to take the one on the other market as well

predictedYES

How have you not resolved this to yes?????

predictedYES

@ZacharyOlson no resolves of a major market, as per criteria of the linked market. also, needs to ONLY be one, so I assume this stays open thru halloween no matter what

@ZacharyOlson This market requires that "exactly" one thing occur. If two occured, then the market still resolves "no".

If you want clarification on the events that count as "something happening", please see the market linked in the description.

predictedYES

@ImDaniel OH thank you for explaining, I didn’t read carefully enough

@ZacharyOlson if you want to bet on "one or more", Joshua's market asks that very question.

War in the Middle East seems like exactly one thing.

@FrederickNorris I don't believe it was referenced in a market that counts. See the Linked market for a description of valid entries.

I'm just going to verbatim take Joshua's answer to the number of things that occured, so convincing him in the "Will nothing occur by Halloween" market is more important than convincing me here.

Betting one mana on no seems appropriate here.

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