@Joshua thinks nothing ever happens, and has outlined "what counts as something happening" in the linked market.
https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-by-hallowe?r=SW1EYW5pZWw
But what if only one thing happens?
This market resolves yes if Joshua deems exactly one event has occurred by Halloween.
This market resolves no if Joshua deems that no event or more than one event occurred by Halloween.
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If not, 18% seems outrageous. On the other hand, if one has happened, and nothing else, it should be a lot higher.



@Shump I've lost a bit of confidence, so it's nice to dilute my position. thanks!


@ZacharyOlson no resolves of a major market, as per criteria of the linked market. also, needs to ONLY be one, so I assume this stays open thru halloween no matter what
@ZacharyOlson This market requires that "exactly" one thing occur. If two occured, then the market still resolves "no".
If you want clarification on the events that count as "something happening", please see the market linked in the description.

@FrederickNorris I don't believe it was referenced in a market that counts. See the Linked market for a description of valid entries.
I'm just going to verbatim take Joshua's answer to the number of things that occured, so convincing him in the "Will nothing occur by Halloween" market is more important than convincing me here.

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