Will exactly one thing happen by Halloween?
Basic
88
38k
resolved Nov 3
Resolved
YES

@Joshua thinks nothing ever happens, and has outlined "what counts as something happening" in the linked market.

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-by-hallowe?r=SW1EYW5pZWw

But what if only one thing happens?

This market resolves yes if Joshua deems exactly one event has occurred by Halloween.

This market resolves no if Joshua deems that no event or more than one event occurred by Halloween.

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predicted YES

@ImDaniel resolves to Yes! I deem only one event has happened.

predicted YES

so what can we make happen tomorrow?

bought Ṁ20 NO from 98.4% to 98%

Oh this is actually an interesting market. the title made it seem boring.

predicted YES

It'd be really funny if a nuclear test happened in the next week

@Joshua "funny"

@FlorisvanDoorn Funny queer, not funny haha.

predicted NO

So is there a market like this that has resolved yet, or not?

predicted NO

If not, 18% seems outrageous. On the other hand, if one has happened, and nothing else, it should be a lot higher.

predicted YES

The speaker of the house market has a chance, I think

I put a large limit order on the current price, if someone wants it

@Shump I've lost a bit of confidence, so it's nice to dilute my position. thanks!

predicted YES

@Stralor Feel free to take the one on the other market as well

predicted YES

How have you not resolved this to yes?????

predicted YES

@ZacharyOlson no resolves of a major market, as per criteria of the linked market. also, needs to ONLY be one, so I assume this stays open thru halloween no matter what

@ZacharyOlson This market requires that "exactly" one thing occur. If two occured, then the market still resolves "no".

If you want clarification on the events that count as "something happening", please see the market linked in the description.

predicted YES

@ImDaniel OH thank you for explaining, I didn’t read carefully enough

@ZacharyOlson if you want to bet on "one or more", Joshua's market asks that very question.

War in the Middle East seems like exactly one thing.

@FrederickNorris I don't believe it was referenced in a market that counts. See the Linked market for a description of valid entries.

I'm just going to verbatim take Joshua's answer to the number of things that occured, so convincing him in the "Will nothing occur by Halloween" market is more important than convincing me here.

Betting one mana on no seems appropriate here.