Will exactly one thing happen by Halloween?
88
1.5K
1.1K
resolved Nov 3
Resolved
YES

@Joshua thinks nothing ever happens, and has outlined "what counts as something happening" in the linked market.

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-nothing-ever-happen-by-hallowe?r=SW1EYW5pZWw

But what if only one thing happens?

This market resolves yes if Joshua deems exactly one event has occurred by Halloween.

This market resolves no if Joshua deems that no event or more than one event occurred by Halloween.

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Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicted YES

@ImDaniel resolves to Yes! I deem only one event has happened.

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicted YES

so what can we make happen tomorrow?

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴 bought Ṁ20 NO from 98.4% to 98%
will58c3 avatar
Will

Oh this is actually an interesting market. the title made it seem boring.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicted YES

It'd be really funny if a nuclear test happened in the next week

FlorisvanDoorn avatar
Floris van Doorn

@Joshua "funny"

FrederickNorris avatar
Frederick Norris

@FlorisvanDoorn Funny queer, not funny haha.

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolinpredicted NO

So is there a market like this that has resolved yet, or not?

DavidBolin avatar
David Bolinpredicted NO

If not, 18% seems outrageous. On the other hand, if one has happened, and nothing else, it should be a lot higher.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚predicted YES

The speaker of the house market has a chance, I think

Shump avatar
Shumpbought Ṁ21 of YES

I put a large limit order on the current price, if someone wants it

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴sold Ṁ375 of YES

@Shump I've lost a bit of confidence, so it's nice to dilute my position. thanks!

Shump avatar
Shumppredicted YES

@Stralor Feel free to take the one on the other market as well

ZacharyOlson avatar
Zachary Olsonpredicted YES

How have you not resolved this to yes?????

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicted YES

@ZacharyOlson no resolves of a major market, as per criteria of the linked market. also, needs to ONLY be one, so I assume this stays open thru halloween no matter what

ImDaniel avatar
Daniel

@ZacharyOlson This market requires that "exactly" one thing occur. If two occured, then the market still resolves "no".

If you want clarification on the events that count as "something happening", please see the market linked in the description.

ZacharyOlson avatar
Zachary Olsonpredicted YES

@ImDaniel OH thank you for explaining, I didn’t read carefully enough

ImDaniel avatar
Daniel

@ZacharyOlson if you want to bet on "one or more", Joshua's market asks that very question.

FrederickNorris avatar
Frederick Norrisbought Ṁ1 of YES

War in the Middle East seems like exactly one thing.

ImDaniel avatar
Daniel

@FrederickNorris I don't believe it was referenced in a market that counts. See the Linked market for a description of valid entries.

I'm just going to verbatim take Joshua's answer to the number of things that occured, so convincing him in the "Will nothing occur by Halloween" market is more important than convincing me here.

Joshua avatar
Joshua 🦚bought Ṁ1 of NO

Betting one mana on no seems appropriate here.