I have set a strategic goal to start a family before Singularity happens, with a provisional deadline by the end of 2027.
The question resolves YES if, by the end of 2027, I am married, or I have proposed and the woman I proposed to said yes.
Relevant context: I was in 4 long-term relationships in my life (2-4 years each, and one 6 months). Mostly, it took me 1-2 months to find a new relationship after the previous one broke. The largest gap was 9 months. But! Now I am looking explicitly for a wife, not just a relationship. I have never yet found a wife.
I have been single since early August 2026, and no one seems to be willing to start a relationship with me right now.
I will not trade on this market.
My dateme doc - primary version to be shown to normal people: https://docs.google.com/document/d/108ftiZBke3Xjw3NhWEUva45tcIH4wn7QUls7eXjoXDw/edit?usp=sharing
My dateme doc - the version to be shown to rationalist and very sciency people like me: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1GpaZU33xeFCYure0kolt3KrzpPMtcQVgbHtiI2f2B8Q/edit?usp=sharing
Update 2026-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the creator is inactive on Manifold for more than 3 months after the market closes, the market will resolve to NO by default.
People are also trading
I bet yes because I know him in person and Ihor is a wonderful, kind, caring person who improved my life greatly.
He’ll set himself up for success, then he’ll be charming to the right woman.
Also the number of AI Safety women is about to dectuple in the next two months, so I don’t see that as as much of a bottleneck compared to some other traders.
@MatthewKhoriaty if the projections are true then the Brothers won't have to embrace monasticism! Praise Be!
Hello traders!
I think I already got a tangible outcome from this market - namely, I created a version of my dateme doc for normal people, based on all your feedback: Ihor's Dateme
This will be the primary version shown to normal people. I will still keep the original version for rationalist and otherwise very science-oriented people.
Now, I am curious to see if this moves probabilities, even if for instrumental reasons: I want to understand if people's stated explanations about their bets here match what happens, and, correspondingly, to what extent it makes sense for me to react to the feedback in the comments.
I acknowledge 2 possible confounds:
1. The new doc may also be lame.
2. The reasoning of traders may go as follows: while the new doc is fixed, the underlying reasons why the original doc was created may still persist. Hence, as long as the underlying lameness factor is not eliminated, the downstream correlate of it (dateme doc) doesn't causally matter.
Let me know your thoughts!
@IhorKendiukhov ah I just traded before seeing this comment. will have to peek at this later!
@IhorKendiukhov Much, much better as a first impression. Leaps and bounds better. My bid-ask spread is updated.
I think the catch-22 is that the traits presented and requested in the 1st doc are traits that can only be credibly put forth once a baseline level of trust is established. If trust is not established, then it's a no-go for most people as a first impression.
It's like asking somebody to marry you on a first date. You don't do that. And it feels like what's happening with the 1st doc.
The 2nd one isn't doing this, and that's where the improvement manifests.
The market seems to have settled at about 25%, and my clamped-down bid-ask spread seems to have found a comfortable equilibrium.
The updated doc netted +5% from the previous stable setpoint I felt.
@IhorKendiukhov I would change the first picture to one that doesn't show you with a halo of carefully positioned books, it comes across like you're trying to look smart as opposed to letting the profile speak for itself. Women would find this off-putting.
@Lorelai @IhorKendiukhov I agree, but... signalling that you actually read could really help you out in 2026. Male reading crisis etc etc
You just need to find a photo that looks more subtle. Like someone's taking a picture of you while you're reading a book (and make it a fiction book)
@IhorKendiukhov remember that you're not betraying yourself if you show things about yourself that are true! It's just choosing how to show it in a way that doesn't make you look autism++
The truth is never lame
@IhorKendiukhov (oh and incidentally try joining a book club in London. Provided you have the mental faculty to read *one* book then it can be an easy way to meet women. It's essentially a fuckboi filter)
@0xseraphim All in? Not necessarily. But your advice might have more credibility if you back it up with trades.
And just like with normal relationship advice, the size (of your bet) doesn't matter; it's how you use it. Updating your position to new information and with the flow of the conversation might be a strong signal that you really mean what you're saying. And it would give other traders the ability to meaningfully challenge your views if they think you're wrong.
@Quroe you're going to have to try harder than that. Try whispering to me that we're actually allies in the latent space of trades
@0xseraphim What can I say? Talk is cheap. If you want to know what someone really believes, ask to look at their portfolio.


