If Manifold Markets were to shut down unless you bought 20$ worth of Mana with real money, would you buy it to save it?
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Will resolve to the most popular opinion by resolution time. If over or equal to 50% will resolve to yes, otherwise to no.

I believe this app is exceptionally developed and its creators really intelligent, so in good faith I already made a small purchase of Mana, which is why I have voted yes.

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bought Ṁ10 NO

I wouldn’t. Not because I don’t think saving Manifold wouldn’t be worth 20$ but because Manifold being short 20$ per user would mean some serious bad sh*t

bought Ṁ8 YES

@Mich is it $20 per user or $20 with you as the pivotal user though? Would the $20 save Manifold no matter what anyone else spends or doesn't spend @IasonKoukas?

@negation I guess regardless of others

I've been willingly buying mana to show support, but I think if they ever strong armed users I would rather take that $20 into a chatgpt sub and try to remake the site lmao

@SirSalty do you think I should cancel the question?

@IasonKoukas Up to you. This style of question is known whalebait / Keynesian beauty contest and has already been unranked by mods.

If you like you could run a poll and then resolve to the majority vote of the poll? This is probably a better way to do what you are looking for.

Will I also get the bragging rights for having been the one who saved Manifold for twenty bucks?

If you mean this will resolve to yes if it just shows over 50%, then this is just a whalebait. It should have been a poll if you wanted to vote.

Yeah, @IasonKoukas this kind of market does not at all work for actually answering the intended question. I'd vote YES in a poll, but I'm not going to buy YES (or NO) here because I don't feel like trying to guess which way the whales will swing it.

@BenjaminCosman I guess you are right. I haven't created many questions so I tried something new. Didn't know it was a known paradigm. I even bet on yes so I'm losing so far 😁

@IasonKoukas The issue is that what it shows right now is irrelevant. Someone will likely come in the last minute (to prevent others from reacting) and flip the market to make the most profit, regardless of the current probability and what most people actually think.

@Weezing can I cancel the question?

@IasonKoukas Yes, you can choose to resolve as "N/A", then all trades are canceled and initial funds are returned.

EDIT: maybe they actually already removed, I willl check

@IasonKoukas ok they changed it recently that only mods can N/A questions. I can message them if you are not on Manifold Discord (channel mod-help). Do you want to do that?

One other possibility is to change resolution criteria so that this market will resolve to result of a poll asking the same question that will be conducted after this market closes. So this market would basically predict result of that poll. This would probably require asking traders if they are fine with that, because it changes resolution criteria, so it's somewhat more complicated.

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