Will reliable sources report that Twitter is struggling to hire software engineers between January 2023 and June 2023?
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resolved Jun 2
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NO

Same definition of reliable sources as Wikipedia. Note that the media should report this as a fact, not as "sources claim" or such weasel words.

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They are struggling to even retain the ones they have left

@Odoacre You mean they are still firing some of them. That's not the same thing, and also retention is not the same as hiring.

predicted YES

@RobinGreen they are tying to entice them to stay by promising "significant" stock grants to whoever sticks around. But yes, they are still firing people too. I don't think that's very encouraging for potential talent.

@Odoacre Note that the signaling value of being hired at a company that fired more than half of it's previous engineers is very high.

predicted NO

@Shai Also people understand that it's "old twitter" engineers getting fired. No reason to expect the job security for new hires will be as bad (probably still worse than other companies, I admit!)

Personally it sounds like a nightmare job, the company has pretty bad prospects, and you could work for something cool like AI instead which is the next big thing.

predicted NO

Would it count if they are struggling specifically trying to hire back engineers they previously fired, even if they can easily hire other engineers?

@fleventy I don't think it should count. That's a very different thing. Burned bridges and all that.

predicted NO

@fleventy No, that’s another question.

Is Twitter going to aggressively hire engineers after a massive round of layoffs last year?

The mainstream media hate Elon Musk, Big Tech (although Twitter isn't that big), and the Elon Musk version of Twitter, so even "reliable sources" aren't necessarily going to reliable if they report this, so I won't be participating in this market.

@ersatz This is the second time I've seen this article being misinterpreted here. The article in fact in fact draws parallels between the misrepresentation seen in Infowars and NY Times.

predicted NO

We are now in January, any claim from a reliable media would resolve this market from now on until the last day of June.

Note the weasel words condition: A sentence like "Twitter, which has had trouble hiring developers..." would resolve the market positively. A sentence like "Twitter, which has been said to have difficulty hiring developers...", would not resolve the market positively. It should be stated as fact by the media and not reported as someone else's opinion.

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