Background

This Manifold Market is a must-bet for any cycling fan, offering a high-stakes prediction on a pivotal stage of the 2025 Tour de France. Stage 13 is a brutal mountain individual time trial (ITT) from Loudenvielle to Peyragudes, an 11km test where every second counts. The core of this market is the intense rivalry between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, whose battles have defined recent Tours. You're not just predicting who wins, but by how much, forcing you to weigh their form on this demanding climb and the psychological warfare between them. Will Pogačar dominate, or will Vingegaard show his ITT strength? Or could another rider pull off a surprise win on this challenging course?

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to the category representing the time difference between the winner of Stage 13 (ITT) and the second-placed rider in the official Tour de France results. The "floor" of the nearest competitor's time difference will be used.

If the time difference is 15.234 seconds, it resolves to "0-15 seconds".

If the time difference is 60.003 seconds, it resolves to "46-60 seconds".

If the time difference is 61.001 seconds, it resolves to "61+ seconds".
IF either of the riders, Jonas or Tadej, does NOT start Stage 13, this Market will resolve as N/A.

This is really about Jonas vs Tadej. If they don't race, you can all have your Mana back and I'll create a slightly different market.


Market Closing:

The market will close at 16:30 CET on the day of Stage 13, 2025. The last rider is scheduled to start at 17:05 CET.