I really don't know currencies and shouldn't be trading this, but I do know in peacetime they're pretty stable compared to equities etc. CME has futures options on ILSZ4 which goes out to December 2024 and their "prior settle" on the 0.25 put (inverse the 4.0) is $0.00008, very cheap. Something like a 1% chance of being over 4.0 at the settlement date. HOWEVER: touching 4.0 ever vs being there at a single point in time is more likely. And I may have dramatically misread these quotes or misunderstood the futures contract.