Will a crop disease/fungus/blight significantly decrease North American crop yields before 2026?

Economics

Ṁ320

Ṁ270

2026

39%

chance

ALL

Must lead to price increases noticeable by the average person.

Must affect something significantly relied on by consumers (eg wheat), or several less-important crops. Food for livestock counts, but diseases directly infecting livestock don't.

Will be a subjective resolution at the end of the day, so I won't trade in this market.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ50 of YES

citrus greening in florida is already doing this

predicts YES

@brubsby avian flu is also causing egg prices to be high https://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonytellez/2023/01/12/why-are-egg-prices-still-so-high-its-not-the-reason-you-think/?sh=2ae01abb7c6b

@brubsby I wouldn’t count Avian flu since it directly infects animals. Added to description to clarify this.

How bad is citrus greening? Does it just affect citrus plants?

predicts YES

@IC citrus greening does only affect citrus, and it's hard to pinpoint exact studies of the total economic effect of citrus greening in Florida in recent years, but a reference to an estimate written in february reads:

"The Florida citrus industry has been severely impacted by this invasive species. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, before the detection of citrus greening, overall citrus production annually topped 200 million boxes. For the 2022-2023 season, USDA projects the state will only produce 20 million boxes of oranges, 1.8 million boxes of grapefruit and 600,000 boxes of specialty fruit, marking the smallest overall crop since 1929-1930."

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2023/02/24/wreaking-havoc-four-invasive-species

Wreaking Havoc: Four Invasive Species Impacting US Agriculture

Non-native plants and animals cause billions in economic damage each year in the United States. During National Invasive Species Awareness Week, we highlight four species of particular concern for agriculture.

Also the citrus industry is estimated at a $6.8 billion annual economic impact, so a reduction to 6.4% output seems significant. (from here: https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2023/06/14/u-s-house-passes-florida-citrus-relief-for-hurricane-damage/ )

Do timber crops qualify?

@CromlynGames Nope, I was thinking of food (for humans/livestock).

The picture for this market is horrifying

If a blight leads to an increase in the price of some specific plant, like avocados, but all other food prices are basically unaffected, how will this resolve?