50% chance. According to a Reuters report, "U.S. prosecutors are examining whether Tesla committed securities or wire fraud by misleading investors and consumers about its electric vehicles’ self-driving capabilities." This question will resolve as YES if the United States Department of Justice formally charges Tesla with at least one count of wire fraud or securities fraud within one year of this report. Any charge of wire fraud or securities fraud will do, even if unrelated to this report. But Tesla itself must be the named defendant; it is irrelevant to this question whether Musk or other executives are charged. Nor will civil cases or criminal prosecutions brought by a state or other country qualify. If Tesla is charged with other federal crimes, this question will remain open until the deadline in case of a superseding indictment.