Will Bitcoin (BTCUSD) close GREEN 🟢or RED 🔴 on the day of the Halving?
54
275
1k
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
YES

Description: The Bitcoin Halving is rapidly approaching!

All signs point to the Halving taking place on April 19, 2024.

Now, the big question: Will the Halving be a “sell-the-news” event?

Market Details:

  • Market Identifier: BTCUSD (Resolves to BTCUSDT on Binance)

  • Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the trading session (in UTC time) during which the Halving takes place. If the Halving occurs on April 19 UTC, the resolution will be based on the trading session for that date.

    However, if the Halving occurs on April 20 UTC, the resolution will be based on the trading session for April 20.

  • Resolution Criteria:

    • Resolves 🟢YES🟢 if the closing price of BTCUSD is higher than the previous day’s closing price on the day of the Halving.

    • Resolves 🔴NO🔴 if the closing price of BTCUSD is lower or remains flat compared to the previous day’s closing price on the day of the Halving.

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@houstonEuler can resolve YES, thanks.

@deagol Wrong houston, think you meant to tag @HoustonxMTL

@houstonEuler lol yes! sorry, had you in my mind xD

@HoustonxMTL To clarify, if the halving happens today, April 19 but after 8 pm EDT, it still resolves on today's price change at the 8 pm close, or does it resolve on the change for tomorrow, April 20, 8 pm EDT close?

@deagol Good question. Right now the Halving is estimated to happen around 920pm April 19th so the market will resolve based on the April 20, 8 pm EDT close.

@HoustonxMTL thanks! I carefully read the otherwise very good description and I don't think that interpretation comes through. I think the issue is:

Resolution Date: The date of the halving

Taking into account your clarification, perhaps that should be:

Resolution Date: The date of the halving (UTC time)

@HoustonxMTL the halving very much could be either before or after midnight UTC, i.e before or after 8pm eastern time. The uncertainty in when it will occur is about an hour and a half.

You should specify specifically whether "the day of the halving" means the calendar day UTC when the halving occurs, or the calendar day US eastern time when the halving occurs.

Don't name a particular date for in either case, because that's not yet determined.

@chrisjbillington I've updated the description.

The market will resolve to the trading session (in UTC time) during which the Halving takes place. If the Halving occurs on April 19 UTC, the resolution will be based on the trading session for that date.

However, if the Halving occurs on April 20 UTC, the resolution will be based on the trading session for April 20.

Hope that makes sense. 👍