Will Bitcoin Halving happen on 4/20, before or after?
resolved Apr 20
on 4/20
before 4/20
after 4/20

Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years (every 210,000 blocks), where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, effectively reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are created. This process is a key feature of Bitcoin's design, ensuring its limited supply, and happened already three times, according to the schedule.

This market will resolve to the UTC calendar day, when Bitcoin's block #840,000 ("halving" moment) will be mined.

4/20 - April 20, 2024 - when the #EuropeanHalvingParty is happening

available estimations at:









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Seems like this is it, see you all on the other market.

@BoltonBailey hey they might take over a day for the last block, huge winnings for the other option!

sold Ṁ0 on 4/20 YES

@deagol right as i hit send lol

bought Ṁ1,000 before 4/20 NO

Darn spent the last 20 minutes fixing my code to do poisson rather than normal and not being able to do it without bugs, should have done that sooner.

bought Ṁ50 on 4/20 NO

@BoltonBailey I totally neglected that, but realised after you made those bets. Lol, whoops. Should have noticed how unrealistic it was with only a few minutes left, but was not actually paying attention to what time UTC it was.

@Elliot_dev your bets probably weren't negative EV, my bad!

@chrisjbillington I thought so

@Elliot_dev These are negative EV bets.

Also, there's a bug that causes me at least not to be able to bet whilst they're up - manifold crashes with a client application error. Gah.

bought Ṁ50 on 4/20 NO

@chrisjbillington Ok they're zero EV now. But will become negative EV again if a block is mined in the next few minutes.

opened a Ṁ10,000 on 4/20 YES at 93% order

@chrisjbillington Time isn’t consistent like on Eth? :/

bought Ṁ150 on 4/20 YES

@Elliot_dev No, the time taken to mine a block is exponentially distributed with a mean of approx 10 minutes.

@chrisjbillington All the counters ticking down on the tracking sites are lies, they should be static and only change when a block is mined lol. There's no way to know when the next block is coming unless you're the one who just mined it.

@chrisjbillington I see and that makes lots of sense. Looks like I am in the green now though.

@chrisjbillington I see the avg time is 9.5 mins so then another 55ish mins.

@Elliot_dev in 15 min you're golden here

bought Ṁ20 before 4/20 YES

@Elliot_dev The most likely outcome is that you win these bets, it's true, since the probability of winning is high. But you overpaid for them, if you made similar bets that many times you would lose on average.

bought Ṁ90 before 4/20 YES

Lol who just bought to 3?

bought Ṁ3,000 on 4/20 YES

@BoltonBailey Oops, had my timezones one hour off...

bought Ṁ35 before 4/20 YES

@sbares Oof, sorry that sucks.

@BoltonBailey @sbares could be genius conviction bet ;)

@deagol Ironically, I've been on top of my league this month due to being on the other side of a similarly stupid bitcoin bet lmao.

bought Ṁ45 before 4/20 YES

Ok bit of an alpha leak here, but I'm finding https://www.bitlisten.com/ very convenient for multitasking trading on this with other things

No block in 69 minutes. Miners manipulating this market? 🤔 🤔 🤔

bought Ṁ10 on 4/20 NO

How much control do miners have on when the halving happens?

@RanaG in current setup, basically zero. All of them can decide to not to mine next blocks or leave coinbase reward at the same reward (without halving) but that wouldn't be bitcoin, but some fork. Someone will for sure mine the bitcoin block 840000 with current rules, which say that after that block coinbase reward is twice smaller