Seems like this is it, see you all on the other market.

@BoltonBailey hey they might take over a day for the last block, huge winnings for the other option!

@deagol right as i hit send lol

Darn spent the last 20 minutes fixing my code to do poisson rather than normal and not being able to do it without bugs, should have done that sooner.

@BoltonBailey I totally neglected that, but realised after you made those bets. Lol, whoops. Should have noticed how unrealistic it was with only a few minutes left, but was not actually paying attention to what time UTC it was.

@Elliot_dev your bets probably weren't negative EV, my bad!

@chrisjbillington haha yay

@chrisjbillington I thought so

@Elliot_dev These are negative EV bets.

Also, there's a bug that causes me at least not to be able to bet whilst they're up - manifold crashes with a client application error. Gah.

@chrisjbillington Ok they're zero EV now. But will become negative EV again if a block is mined in the next few minutes.

@chrisjbillington Time isn’t consistent like on Eth? :/

@Elliot_dev No, the time taken to mine a block is exponentially distributed with a mean of approx 10 minutes.

@chrisjbillington All the counters ticking down on the tracking sites are lies, they should be static and only change when a block is mined lol. There's no way to know when the next block is coming unless you're the one who just mined it.

@chrisjbillington I see and that makes lots of sense. Looks like I am in the green now though.

@chrisjbillington I see the avg time is 9.5 mins so then another 55ish mins.

@Elliot_dev in 15 min you're golden here

@Elliot_dev The most likely outcome is that you win these bets, it's true, since the probability of winning is high. But you overpaid for them, if you made similar bets that many times you would lose on average.

Lol who just bought to 3?

@BoltonBailey Oops, had my timezones one hour off...

@sbares Oof, sorry that sucks.

@BoltonBailey @sbares could be genius conviction bet ;)

@deagol Ironically, I've been on top of my league this month due to being on the other side of a similarly stupid bitcoin bet lmao.

Ok bit of an alpha leak here, but I'm finding https://www.bitlisten.com/ very convenient for multitasking trading on this with other things

No block in 69 minutes. Miners manipulating this market? 🤔 🤔 🤔

How much control do miners have on when the halving happens?

@RanaG in current setup, basically zero. All of them can decide to not to mine next blocks or leave coinbase reward at the same reward (without halving) but that wouldn't be bitcoin, but some fork. Someone will for sure mine the bitcoin block 840000 with current rules, which say that after that block coinbase reward is twice smaller