
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Whoever has a higher chance of winning.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
If it is not released by September 30th, it will resolve as soon as it is released.
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I think it means that if their model isn't released by then as apposed to what the model will say then. At least that's what I bet on...
But by when? If the model is released on September 1st, does it resolve then?
"If it is not released by August 31st, it will resolve as soon as it is released."
Yes, it will resolve the day of release. Honestly the chances of it not being up by Sep. 30th are pretty near zero though. That's just in case the model is down.
@TimothyBandors mismatch between description and title was unfortunate, but I don't think there's a better solution now, so I'm not going to intervene. You can use the resolution rating system to give feedback about the creator when the market resolves.
how so? If anything there is a greater chance of this being false and you winning on September 30th (more time for odds to switch), vs August 31st.
@TimothyBandors I have the exact same question with August 31st like you thought. If you traded there you would have lost Mana. Feel free to trade there for a cheaper price: https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-harris-lead-in-the-538-electio
@TimothyBandors OP updated the market, the description now says "If it is not released by September 30th, it will resolve as soon as it is released.", previously that said August 31st.
if you're unhappy, sell. you will lose barely anything. If you submit a limit order at what you bought it at, I'll fill it. No hard feelings.