
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Whoever has a higher chance of winning.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
Will resolve as soon as data for the last day of the month is available.
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@MathYeuxSommet I think there is some confusion because the site linked in the description prominently features a graph of the current polling (where Harris leads), but the market is NOT about the polling and will not resolve to that specific graph. It's about Silver's forecasting model which you can't see without a subscription.
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@MathYeuxSommet I think there is some confusion because the site linked in the description prominently features a graph of the current polling (where Harris leads), but the market is NOT about the polling and will not resolve to that specific graph. It's about Silver's forecasting model which you can't see without a subscription.
@HillaryClinton does this resolve based on the forecast at a particular time? There might be an update made to the forecast on August 31 itself that changes how this question resolves, so I’m wondering if you will look at what it is at a specific time.