Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate, and signed into law by the President, on or before July 31, 2025. Passage is defined as the bill receiving majority approval in both chambers of Congress and being enacted into law. The primary source for verification will be official records from the U.S. Congress and the White House.

Background

As of June 18, 2025, the House of Representatives has passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) by a narrow margin of 215–214. The bill includes extensions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions, significant tax cuts, and reductions in programs like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add approximately $2.5 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. (akingump.com) The bill now awaits consideration in the Senate, where its future remains uncertain due to internal disagreements among Republican senators over its fiscal impact and specific provisions. (axios.com)

Considerations

• Senate Dynamics: The Senate has not yet voted on the OBBBA. Some Republican senators have expressed concerns about the bill's cost and scope, which could affect its passage. (axios.com)

• Legislative Timeline: The House leadership aimed to have the bill signed into law by July 4, 2025. However, the Senate has not committed to this timeline, and unexpected delays are common in the legislative process. (cbh.com)

• Potential Amendments: The Senate may propose amendments to the bill, necessitating further negotiations and votes in both chambers, which could impact the likelihood of the bill being passed by the July 31 deadline.