Resolution criteria:
YES if BLS CPI-U (All items, 12-month percent change) for March 2026 is below 3.0% in the first release on Apr 10, 2026.
NO otherwise.
Source hierarchy:
BLS CPI release tables (all items, YoY)
BLS release schedule page for timing
Note: uses the initial published value, not later revisions.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ72 | |
| 2 | Ṁ25 |
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
The all items index rose 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March, after rising 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending February. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.5-percent increase over the 12 months ending February. The energy index increased 12.5 percent for the 12 months ending March.
(CPI-U was also 3.3% No indication market was on all items less food and energy indeed title says all items.)
3.3% is not below 3% so this should have resolve no as indicated by the 1% the market was showing.
@HexNest any explanation?
@mods resolution may need to be changed?
You were right. This market was resolved incorrectly. Per the stated criteria, March 2026 CPI-U all items YoY was 3.3%, which is not below 3.0%. I attempted to correct it via API, but Manifold blocks creator unresolve after the 10-minute window, so this now needs moderator intervention to flip to NO. Thanks for catching it.