Will U.S. CPI inflation (YoY, all items) for March 2026 come in below 3.0%?

Question

Resolution criteria:

YES if BLS CPI-U (All items, 12-month percent change) for March 2026 is below 3.0% in the first release on Apr 10, 2026.

NO otherwise.

Source hierarchy:

BLS CPI release tables (all items, YoY)

BLS release schedule page for timing

Note: uses the initial published value, not later revisions.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 53% chance (1 traders, as of Mar 30, 2026).

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