https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/

The Washington Primary has become famous in some circles for its ability to predict the national environment months before the general election occurs. If the Washington Primary retains its predictive powers this year, one would expect the National House Generic Ballot Margin (measured with SHAVE, more details below) to be within one point of the "rule of 12" estimate, a D+3.8 environment. This market will resolve based on the following conditions:

YES if the National House Generic Ballot Margin (SHAVE) is between D+2.8 and D+4.8, inclusive.

NO otherwise.

The SHAVE is an estimate produced by Split Ticket which estimates what the national congressional margin would be if every voter was given a generic choice between "Republican" and "Democrat". This estimate helps to account for situations where one party does not contest a candidate and other oddities of that sort that dilute the raw Congressional margin. In 2022, the SHAVE wasn't released until December, so this market will likely resolve later than most 2024 US Election markets. SHAVE is generally no more than 2 or so points off the actual National House margin, so if it is clear that the SHAVE will not be within the range above by the time the election is called, this market may resolve to NO early.