Will the SEC bring an enforcement action against OpenAI or its executives, in connection with Altman firing before 2026?

"US SEC investigating if OpenAI investors were misled, WSJ reports"

Resolves NO if no such action has been taken before EOY 2025.

I will not bet in this market. Happy to take help in clarifying criteria, in case helpful.

To further clarify what "Enforcement action" might include, the below is taken from Gemini Advanced:

Types of Enforcement Actions

  • Administrative Proceedings: The agency brings a case before an administrative law judge, similar to a court trial but within the agency's structure.

  • Civil Lawsuits: The agency files a lawsuit in federal court seeking penalties or other remedies.

  • Cease-and-Desist Orders: The agency issues an order demanding the individual or company stop the violating behavior.

  • Consent Orders: These are negotiated agreements where the entity admits wrongdoing (sometimes without fully admitting guilt) and agrees to penalties or changes in practice to avoid a full trial.

  • Wells Notices: A formal notification that the agency intends to pursue an enforcement action. This gives the target a chance to provide a defense before the case is official.

Possible Outcomes of Enforcement Actions

  • Fines: Monetary penalties for violations.

  • Injunctions: Court orders prohibiting certain actions or requiring specific changes.

  • Restitution: Requiring the violator to repay money to harmed investors.

  • Disgorgement of Profits: Forcing the surrender of ill-gotten gains.

  • Bars and Suspensions: Preventing individuals from working in the securities industry.

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