Will my 5 shipped boxes arrive to the US from Sweden as intended?
12
112
250
resolved Oct 8
Resolved
YES

I shipped it today, using a Swedish firm for international shipping. The boxes just got picked up by UPS. Five normal moving boxes, somewhat sloppily packaged, some in rough condition, and a bit too hastily taped shut. The boxes don't have any fragile material in them.

If there is enough interest (5+ traders) I can commit to posting status updates.

Resolves YES if everything below is fulfilled:
– All 5 boxes arrive within 30 days (the deal is for it to arrive within the next week)
– All of the items in the boxes are intact

Resolves NO if one of the below is not fulfilled:
– At least 1 of the boxes doesn't arrive
– At least 1 of the boxes gets stuck in customs in a way that I cannot resolve it with 1 phone call and/or 3 emails
– At least 1 of the boxes gets delivered to a wrong address in a way that I cannot resolve it with 1 phone call and/or 3 emails

I won't bet in this market, as it might come to judgment calls.

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All 5 boxes have arrived. 🥳 They came in three separate deliveries, which meant I had to be home on guard the whole week, but I didn't need to make any more calls or emails.

The ear of one coffee mug came off, that was the only harm done to the stuff except some dust that came through cracks. I don't think it's in the spirit of the question to resolve NO based on a single $5 item, so I'll be resolving YES tomorrow as long as nobody objects.

@HenriThunberg Nice! Feels like people could just dump a lot of mana now and make a big return if you’d resolve it tomorrow? Though I’m biased because this will resolve in my favour.

I just got an email from UPS that delivery is scheduled for tomorrow morning (pacific time).

There hasn't been an official confirmation that my form yesterday was enough, or that the boxes have cleared customs, but that seems to be the case. According to the delivery details, they are still held in Kentucky, waiting for information from me.

Just got an email from UPS that I must submit CBP form 3299, specifying the content of my shipment, and my shipment has been held up until this is resolved.

I have submitted the form, and note that 1 out of 3 permitted emails has been sent.

Considering all of these stops, I'd be surprised if none of the boxes are in very poor condition once they arrive.

predicted YES

@HenriThunberg Your market is contingent on the items being okay not the boxes so this seems fine?

@gaurav Yup, although probability of personal items not being fine should correlate somewhat with the state of the boxes. But yes, clarifying that it's fine if boxes are in shit shape as long as it doesn't harm my items (dirt is fine, tears or cracks is not).

Update, UPS tracking number works for all boxes and they now seem to be in Koeln, Germany. Scheduled arrival Wednesday.