What will happen at the L + E wedding?
4
79
575
in 6 hours
99%
The wedding happens on the planned date
98.4%
≥7 non-host speeches/happenings at dinner
89%
At least 10 seconds of Carola will be played on the dance floor
63%
Some guests are still dancing in a communal space at 01:00
38%
≥12 non-host speeches/happenings at dinner
13%
Somebody uses a smartphone during their own speech
11%
Visible blood in public sometime during the day
8%
More than 10 consecutive words in a Balkan language during speeches
8%
Father or Mother of L or E delivers either groom or bride at ceremony
6%
This market is mentioned in one of the speeches
6%
An adult throws up during the day/night
5%
Both L + E have specifically written vows for ceremony
4%
More than $1k is raised for charity in connection to the wedding
3%
Some guests are still awake in a communal space at 02:00
1.2%
L has physical remains (e.g. scar, wound, ...) from the bachelor party on wedding day

Let's add some probability spice to this blessed day of celebration!
Feel free to add your own questions.
Insider trading is allowed, so bet on your own risk!

As I haven't asked for permission to create this market, please don't divulge information that would let people know who the wedding concerns.

Make your answers as understandable as possible with just the text so traders don't have to read the comments to know how something will resolve.

  • I reserve the right to reword answers myself to make them more clear. I may N/A submissions for any reason.

  • Evidence/specific mention of what/when provided in comments is strongly encouraged to facilitate speedy resolution. I reserve the right to resolve NO any answer for which sufficient evidence is not provided, though will do what I can to resolve independently and putting faith in market participants + external judges.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
≥7 non-host speeches/happenings at dinner

For this (and the ≥12 version) I mean any games, events, speeches that are initiated by people other than the groom/bride or any toastmaster/toastmistress from the moment people sit down for dinner, until the end of the evening.