I'll tag @ManifoldMarkets on X/Twitter at least 5 times within the next year to make a market into sweepstakes one. What will be the outcome?
Has to be 5 separate markets, I will probably mostly go for my own markets but might also go for others in case they are great or I am running low on suitable markets myself. Though all the markets will be ones I actually think are suitable, with objective resolution criteria, well-defined terms or edge-cases, etc.
Resolves YES if I don't do 5 such tweets, but will absolutely aim for it. Hold me accountable for your NO-holder losses in case this happens, and I'll make it up to you.
Resolves NO if they do not make any of the markets into sweepstakes within 30 days of me asking them – and 12 months have passed (Sep 26 2025).
I won't trade in this market, as I have direct control over path to YES outcome.
1,000
1.00@snazzlePop that wasn't how I read the resolution criteria?
Resolves YES if I don't do 5 such tweets, but will absolutely aim for it. Hold me accountable for your NO-holder losses in case this happens, and I'll make it up to you.
Resolves NO if they do not make any of the markets into sweepstakes within 30 days of me asking them – and 12 months have passed (Sep 26 2025).
Seems to require that they sweepify a market that he tweets about, within the 30 days after the tweet? but @HenriThunberg can rule what he intended
@Ziddletwix I interpreted the crux of the question to mean “will manifold sweepify one of my markets?” and understood the passage you cited to mean that if he doesn’t get around to tweeting 5+ markets it’d still resolve Yes, especially if a market is sweepified without a tweet request.
You may have seen that @HenriThunberg already asked for some markets to be sweepified here: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1288912935724253265/1288940542285320224
@HenriThunberg OK I DM:de snazzlPop first to give them a chance to sell – I had a bit of a bad conscience on resolution criteria being unclear. Below is roughly what I wrote:
"honestly it's tricky. I suggested a few through Discord, and they took me up on two of them.
I'll say NO on this, because Discord is a more direct line of communication than X, so I think NO to a fair degree covers the spirit of the market and definitely the description outlined above."