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MANIFOLD
Will Crown Prince Frederik be publicly heckled with anti-monarchist rhetoric before March 2024?
14
Ṁ270Ṁ816
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO

"Margrethe, the longest-serving monarch in Europe, announced during her New Year’s speech that she would abdicate her throne in January. Her eldest son, Crown Prince Frederik, will succeed her." (source)

Resolves YES if:

  • a protester verbally confronts or heckles Frederik with anti-monarchist language

  • and the brush is face-to-face with Frederik

  • and the incident is reported on by at least one credible news organization or journalist

  • anytime between January 2nd and February 29th

Basically we are looking for an event similar to the "Taxpayers pay for your parade" moment with Charles.

Anything that would NOT count:

  • An organized protest where Frederik is not present

  • Any non-verbal signage presented to Frederik

  • Frederik is directly and verbally heckled but with personal criticism (i.e. his past conduct), rather than opposition to the monarchy system in general

  • An incident that isn't covered by a news organization or journalist; i.e. if we only know about it through a social media post (unless the social media post is by a journalist, in which case I would resolve YES)

I will not bet on this market as there may be some subjectivity in resolving.

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Heckling with personal criticism should be included. It's the personal behavior of monarchs that has a strong correlation with opposition to a monarchy system in general. Of course there are are drivers and factors that drive opposition, some more principaled but I suspect that's a minority. Maybe we need a second market that covers any heckling?

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