Of the major candidates in the 2024 Republican primary, who will be the first to endorse Donald Trump?
21
968αΉ€5387
resolved Jan 14
100%99.0%
Doug Burgum
0.1%
Nikki Haley
0.1%
Tim Scott
0.1%
Ron DeSantis
0.1%
Mike Pence
0.1%
Chris Christie
0.1%
Asa Hutchinson
0.3%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.2%
Francis Suarez
0.0%
Will Hurd

There are 11 "major candidates as defined by FiveThirtyEight as of August 24, 2023. Resolved when either of these candidates end their own campaign and endorse Donald Trump for president.

Resolution criteria:

  • A candidate ends their campaign and releases an official statement or gives a speech in which they endorse Trump for president

If the primary ends without a single one of these 10 candidates going on to endorse Trump, then the market resolves equally to all options.

If multiple candidates endorse him in a joint announcement (or it's not possible to determine the order), resolves to an even split.

Update: Francis Suarez ended his presidential campaign on Aug 29, but has not endorsed Trump (or any candidate, for that matter) as of Sep 13. Therefore this market is still open, with Suarez and all active candidates still possible resolution options.

Update 2: Will Hurd suspended his campaign on October 9th and endorsed Nikki Haley; however, he remains a resolution option in the event he changes his endorsement in the future.

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reposted

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@OllieG if two or more endorse him in a joint announcement (or it's not possible to determine the order), presumably resolves to an even split?

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