
Submission rules:
To submit an integer as 'mentioned', enter a comment that BEGINS with your integer in square brackets, e.g. "[3] I like the stock" is a valid submission, while "1 2 3 4 5" is not.
Detailed rules:
The integer must be the first word of the comment to qualify. Only the first integer in a valid comment qualifies. In addition, only comments entered before closing will count. In the unlikely event that there are more than 100 comments, only entries the most recent 100 will be counted.
At 12 noon on 10 Jan 2023, the market closes and resolves YES if my chosen integer is mentioned a prime number of times (2, 3, 5, 7, 11... etc). Resolves NO otherwise. I will not hint at nor reveal my chosen integer, nor participate in submitting integers in the comments, nor bet in this market.
My chosen integer is encrypted in this string, to be revealed after market close: "hybpoqmfraqsgzmombvqedmpbpn". Any attempts to decrypt are welcome.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ37 | |
2 | Ṁ8 | |
3 | Ṁ2 | |
4 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Thanks to @bohaska for doing the work of compiling the evidence. Exactly 6 of the 10 possible choices were mentioned a prime number of times. Since we don't have the choice available, we're resolving to 60%. If someone comes forward with the 'decrypted' string proving the actual random number, we can re-resolve to the single correct value.
@Jacknaut you should consider donating half your profits to @bohaska because they had to do a lot of work to resolve this.
Ok, I got all comments on this page and ran it through my code.
Because the question specifies "noon", I'll start counting from this comment https://manifold.markets/Hei/ive-chosen-an-integer-between-1-to#2r6oGoflWWTwZojyApnX and count the 100 comments before.
34 comments were thrown out for not being valid. Some controversial ones include [five] and a [4] with a bunch of spaces around it.
After that, my code spit out the following:
{
"1": 4,
"2": 5,
"3": 4,
"4": 3,
"5": 4,
"6": 3,
"7": 5,
"8": 4,
"9": 5,
"10": 29
}
2, 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 are prime. Assuming the creator chose his number randomly, there's a 60% chance of this resolving YES.
Therefore, we resolve to 60%.